Reading WABC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WABC free→Reading WABC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WABC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WABC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 WABC trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $55 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.10 (+4.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$194.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,184.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal broader issues in the financial sector. This may affect Westamerica Bank's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WABC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 16, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WABC Westamerica Bank | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on maintaining a low-cost deposit base with a significant portion in non-interest bearing accounts.
Continue to control operating expenses to maintain efficiency.
Focus on enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Westamerica can maintain its earnings strength. Investors will focus on net income and EPS.
Confirms one read:Net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $27.4 million reported in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Net income for Q2 2026 falls below $27.4 million reported in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders. A rise may show confidence.
Confirms:The dividend increases beyond $0.48 per share in the next quarter.
Disproves:The dividend remains at $0.48 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can affect bank performance and investor feelings.
Confirms:Claims go over 300,000. This shows economic stress.
Disproves:Claims stay under 250,000. This shows economic stability.
Why it matters: Net interest income is crucial for bank profitability. A decline may signal challenges in loan growth or deposit costs.
Confirms:Net interest income in Q2 2026 drops below $52.7 million reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net interest income in Q2 2026 will be more than $52.7 million from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses may show waste. This can hurt profits and returns for shareholders.
Confirms:Operating costs go over 45% of total revenues in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating costs stay at or below 42% of total revenues in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 16, 2025, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.