Reading VABK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VABK free→Reading VABK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VABK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If VABK cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 VABK trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$294.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,280.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report gives insight into consumer spending, which affects bank revenues. Strong retail sales can support growth.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VABK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (the “Company”) and Cathy W. Liles, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company and the Company’s bank subsidiary, Virginia National Bank (the “Bank”), entered into a management continuity agreement (a “Management Continuity Agreement”). Under the terms of the Managem…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VABK Virginia National Bankshares Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends impact the overall health of the financial sector. A drop below median signals potential weakness.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The FOMC makes choices about interest rates. These choices affect how much money banks make. Changes can change what the market expects.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC holds interest rates steady or cuts them.
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (the “Company”) announced that, effective May 1, 2026, the Company’s indirect, wholly owned subsidiary, Fauquier Bank Services, Inc. (“FBS”), completed the sale of FBS’s interest in Bearing Insurance Group, LLC, a full service insurance agency. The Company expects to realize a pre-tax gain on the sale of approximately $4.7 million, which will be reflected in the Company’s operating results for the second quarter of 2026. F…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press statement announcing the consolidated earnings for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press statement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K, and the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Other Events. On April 22, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on the Company's outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend of $0.36 per share will be paid on May 29, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 13, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 30, 2026, the Board of Directors of Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (the “Company”) appointed Robert Lee Burrows, Jr. as a director of the Company, effective February 25, 2026. He has also been appointed as a director of the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary bank, Virginia National Bank. He will be compensated in the same manner…