Reading UVSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVSP free→Reading UVSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVSP free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, UVSP is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If UVSP cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 UVSP trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.86 (+5.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,401.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UVSP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Univest Financial Corporation (the “Corporation”), parent company of Univest Bank and Trust Co. (the "Bank"), issued a press release reporting 2026 first quarter earnings. A copy of this press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UVSP Univest Financial Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend of $0.22 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share was maintained at $0.22 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with a slight increase from $0.21 in 2025-Q1, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
“The company maintained a dividend per share of $0.22.”
“Dividend per share was $0.22.”
“Dividend per share was $0.22.”
“Dividend per share was $0.21.”
Focus on increasing net income through operational improvements.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income increased to $27.1 million in 2026-Q1 from $22.7 million in 2025-Q4, showing a positive trajectory. This reflects effective operational improvements and a focus on growth, with consistent increases over the past quarters.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $22.1 million in 2026-Q1, down from $30.7 million in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline. Despite previous improvements, the recent quarter shows limited progress in enhancing cash flow.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its momentum score. Investors look for signs of growth.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a momentum score increase back above 70.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a momentum score below 69.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This affects how much money banks make. A rate hike could increase their earnings.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Other Events. On February 9, 2026, Univest Financial Corporation (the “Company”) extended the expiration date for its offer to exchange (the “Exchange Offer”) any and all of its outstanding 6.00% Fixed-to-Floating Subordinated Notes due 2035 (the “Old Notes”) that were issued in an unregistered offering on November 6, 2025 for newly issued 6.00% Fixed-to-Floating Subordinated Notes due 2035 that have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (“New Notes”), upon the terms and conditions…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026, Univest Financial Corporation (the “Corporation”), parent company of Univest Bank and Trust Co. (the "Bank"), issued a press release reporting 2025 fourth quarter and full year earnings. A copy of this press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On December 10, 2025, the Board of Directors of Univest Financial Corporation (the "Corporation") approved an increase of 2,000,000 shares available for repurchase under the Corporation's share repurchase program, or approximately 7.1% of the Corporation's common stock outstanding as of November 30, 2025. The Corporation has purchased approximately 577,000 shares of common stock under the Board approved repurchase program of 1,000,000 additional shares announced in October 2024.…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On November 6, 2025, Univest Financial Corporation (the “Company”) entered into Subordinated Note Purchase Agreements (collectively, the “Subordinated Note Purchase Agreements”) with certain qualified institutional buyers and institutional accredited investors (collectively, the “Subordinated Note Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company issued $50.0 million in aggregate principal amount of its 6.00% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 20…
“Net income increased to $27.1 million.”
“Net income was $22.7 million.”
“Net income was $25.6 million.”
“Net income was $19.9 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $22.1 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $30.7 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $31.9 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $23.3 million.”