Reading USCB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USCB free→
USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. (USCB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$19.52-0.15%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect USCB's performance. Compared with sector peers, it is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, that could support USCB's momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $357.06M
- Employees
- 205
- IPO date
- 2022-03-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$20.00consensus
Range $19.72 – $33.28
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$61.14consensus
Range $48.58 – $73.70
vs price: -68% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for USCB right now, so treat our $20 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$20.00
range $19.72 – $33.28
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
33rd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
68th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish5 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.49 (-0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$288.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,361.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on July 23, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report shows how USCB is doing and its place in the market.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is higher than what analysts expected. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is lower than analyst expectations. This suggests weaker performance.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for USCB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting USCB and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If USCB beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +9% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping USCB and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on USCB and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits USCB and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-011mo agoItem 1.01
in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 30, 2021 and incorporated by reference herein. The above summary of the Mutual Termination Agreement is qualified in its entirety by reference to the Mutual Termination Agreement, which is attached as Exhibit 4.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein.
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.