USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-14
$15.71+0.96%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put USAR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Improve operating income from current losses: metric not reported.
View ThesisThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 69% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUSAR's growth hinges on the successful acquisition of the Serra Verde mine. This deal is expected to generate $550 million to $650 million in annualized EBITDA by 2027. Revenue growth is crucial to offset current losses and improve cash flow. The stock trades at a low valuation compared to peers, implying a price about 60% above where it trades. However, the primary pillar is broken due to ongoing operating losses. If USAR fails to secure government funding or faces delays in the acquisition, the outlook could worsen. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. USAR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering USAR (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for USAR in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare USAR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Diversified Metals & Mining — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put USAR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Secure and execute U.S. government funding agreements
Cash burn rate threatens funding agreements execution.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $15.71
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $15.71.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Secure and execute U.S. government funding agreements
Funding concerns may hinder execution of government agreements.
Advances: Build integrated global rare earth value chain
Merger enhances integrated rare earth value chain.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Secured funding aligns with capital allocation objective.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Federal backing significantly supports funding goals.
Threatens: Secure government funding agreements
Funding unlock issues may hinder capital plans.