USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$10.52+0.38%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put USAR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Secure and unlock government funding agreements: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 71% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUSAR’s rare-earth value chain depends on government funding agreements and reliable execution. Recent results are weak, with a latest quarterly earnings miss. That miss weakens evidence that the company can build its integrated rare-earth chain. The desk has no valuation multiple or peer comparison for USAR. It also has no priced-in assessment, so the market’s expectations remain unclear. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 37%. The funding-agreement metric lacks verified mapping, leaving that key pillar uncertain. Our standing thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. USAR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering USAR (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare USAR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Diversified Metals & Mining — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put USAR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
New CEO may enhance strategic execution and leadership.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Build integrated global rare earth value chain
Partnership enhances integrated rare earth value chain.
Threatens: Secure and execute U.S. government funding agreements
Cash burn rate threatens funding agreements execution.
Threatens: Secure and execute U.S. government funding agreements
Funding concerns may hinder execution of government agreements.
Advances: Build integrated global rare earth value chain
Merger enhances integrated rare earth value chain.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Secured funding aligns with capital allocation objective.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Federal backing significantly supports funding goals.
Threatens: Secure government funding agreements
Funding unlock issues may hinder capital plans.