Reading USAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USAR free→Reading USAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USAR free→NASDAQMaterialsOther Industrial Metals & MiningSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may further challenge the company's position. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.22 → $-0.13 (+42.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 44.8% above current price.
3 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$441.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,923.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: These deals are important for USAR's money stability and growth plans.
Confirms:A formal announcement of government funding deals worth at least $1.6 billion.
Disproves:No deals are completed, or funding is much less than $1.6 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Secured funding aligns with capital allocation objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. In connection with the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement (the “Merger”), on June 15, 2026, USAR filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) Amendment No. 1 (“Amendment No. 1”) to the preliminary proxy statement that that was filed on Schedule 14A on May 13, 2026 (together with Amendment No. 1, the “Preliminary Proxy Statement”), which included USAR’s unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial statements as of and for the three months ended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Metals & Mining.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
USAR USA Rare Earth, Inc. | — | — | high |
VALE VALE SA | — | full | moderate |
MP MP Materials | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | — | elevated |
SBSW SIBANYE STILLWATER LTD | — | — | high |
MTRN Materion Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Focus on securing government funding agreements to support operations.
Plan and announce acquisitions to enhance strategic growth.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Acquisition plans may show that USAR is growing and expanding.
Confirms:A press release with details on specific targets or agreements.
Disproves:No news about acquisitions or delays in plans to acquire.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for USAR's money health and investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by at least 10% from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from the last quarter.
Advances: Secure government funding agreements
Federal backing significantly supports funding goals.
Threatens: Secure government funding agreements
Funding unlock issues may hinder capital plans.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Direct Funding Agreement & Loan Guarantee Agreement On January 26, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (“ USAR ”) previously announced its entry into a non-binding letter of intent by and between USAR and the United States Department of Commerce (the “ DOC ”) with respect to funding in an aggregate amount equal to $1.6 billion, including $277.0 million in direct funding awards and $1.3 billion in senior secured debt with a 15-year term and an expected rate o…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The Lease On June 1, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Lease Agreement (the “Lease”) with TC Liberty Development, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Landlord”), for the lease of a to-be-constructed specialty rare earth magnet manufacturing facility located on Bear Den Road in Blacksburg, Cherokee County, South Carolina (the “Premises”). The Premises will be used for specialty manufacturing and general industrial/ware…
Other Events. In connection with the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement (the “Merger”), on May 13, 2026 USAR filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a preliminary proxy statement on Schedule 14A related to the Merger (the “Preliminary Proxy Statement”), and a Current Report on Form 8-K, which included the unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial statements of USAR for the year ended December 31, 2025. USAR is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities Act. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K and the documents included as exhibits hereto contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation R…