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Unity Bancorp, Inc. (UNTY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$55.38-2.21%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If UNTY cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $568.62M
- Employees
- 239
- IPO date
- 2001-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-21
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$50.82consensus
Range $45.40 – $70.54
vs price: +9% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$52.65consensus
Range $40.66 – $74.54
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $55 UNTY trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.3x
peer 12.2x · own history —
Premium
0.8x peer
Growth the price needs
14%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$48.49
range $41.87 – $70.54
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
full12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
37th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
16th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish4 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.43 → $1.44 (+0.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$284.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,610.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the financial sector's growth phase. This may affect Unity's stock.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Unity's revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Unity's revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UNTY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 8.01
Other Events The Registrant issued a press release on May 21, 2026, announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.16 per common share payable on June 18, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 4, 2026. The full text of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 with this current report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference in response to this item.
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.