Reading TTWO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTWO free→Reading TTWO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTWO free→
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 271% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If TTWO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $229.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $230 the market pays 56× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 53× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $62 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $280–$300. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 271% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.09x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.31 → $-0.21 (+32.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 97% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$295.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,768.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This game is expected to drive significant revenue growth and set a new performance baseline.
Confirms:The launch was successful. Sales went over $1 billion in the first week.
Disproves:Launch fails to meet sales expectations, with less than $500 million in sales in the first week.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
Analyst highlights potential of GTA VI launch.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 21, 2026 , Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results of the Company for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$280.00 – $300.00 (median $287.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Interactive Home Entertainment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TTWO Take-Two Interactive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NTES NETEASE INC | — | — | moderate |
EA Electronic Arts | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RBLX ROBLOX CORPORATION | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTK Playtika Holding Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing Net Bookings through strong portfolio execution and new releases.
Prepare for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI to drive future growth.
Focus on enhancing profitability through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can meet its growth targets after the recent miss.
Confirms:Earnings results show a big improvement from last quarter's performance.
Disproves:Earnings results missed expectations again. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: The tender offer affects Take-Two's debt and how it can manage its money.
Confirms one read:A press release says the tender offer was fully subscribed and completed.
Confirms the other:The tender offer was not fully taken or was canceled.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into the company's performance and outlook after GTA VI launch.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows positive net income and strong guidance for the rest of the year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals a net loss and reduced guidance for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: The launch of this title is crucial for increasing net bookings and overall revenue.
Confirms:An official announcement of the launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.
Disproves:Further delays or no announcement regarding the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating goals shows strong interest from customers. It also shows room to grow.
Confirms:Net Bookings for Q4 land at or above $1.510 billion.
Disproves:Net Bookings for Q4 fall below $1.510 billion.
Why it matters: More spending from users shows they are still engaged. This means more chances to make money.
Confirms:Recurrent consumer spending grows by more than 15% year over year in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Recurrent consumer spending growth is less than 5% year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: This number is important. It shows the company's growth after launching GTA VI.
Confirms:Net Bookings reported at $1.37 billion or higher for Q1 2027.
Disproves:Net Bookings fall below $1.20 billion for Q1 2027.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
AI efficiencies and mobile growth support GTA VI launch.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
Record sales estimates for GTA VI are promising.
Advances: Enhance Profitability
Path to profitability aligns with management's goals.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
Analyst sees GTA VI driving shares higher.
Threatens: Enhance Profitability
Cautious outlook may hinder profitability goals.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
Confirmation of GTA VI release date is significant.
Advances: Launch Grand Theft Auto VI
CEO's statement on industry impact is positive.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026 , Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results of the Company for its third fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025 , Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results of the Company for its second fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of Amendment and Restatement of the 2017 Stock Incentive Plan On September 18, 2025, the stockholders of Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) approved and adopted an amendment and restatement of the Amended and Restated Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. 2017 Stock Incentive Plan (the “2017 Plan”) at the Company’s annual me…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Adoption of Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plan On August 29, 2025, the Compensation Committee (the “ Committee ”) of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “ Company ”) approved a form of a nonqualified deferred compensation plan for certain key employees, including the Company’s named executive offi…