Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-10-15

$205.28-1.96%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Take-Two Interactive’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.25 → 10.25 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful launch of Grand Theft Auto VI	GTA VI launch is expected to boost future sales.	Improving	GTA VI launch delayed beyond Q4 2026 or sales fall significantly below expectations	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently highlights the November 19, 2026 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI as a key event. The product launch is expected to drive record Net Bookings in fiscal 2027. The trajectory is delivering as the launch date approaches with continued emphasis. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net Bookings grow to at least $6.72 billion in fiscal 2026	Take-Two grew net bookings 19% to $6.72 billion in fiscal 2026.	Improving	Net Bookings fall below $6.0 billion in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net Bookings guidance increased from $6.05-$6.15 billion in 2026-Q1 to $8.0-$8.2 billion for fiscal 2027. Actual Net Bookings grew from $1.42B in 2026-Q1 to $1.39B in 2027-Q1 (slight decline quarter-over-quarter). Management is reiterating the $8.0-$8.2B target and projecting record levels, showing delivering trajectory on growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Reduce GAAP net loss significantly	Management improved net loss from $4.48 billion to $298 million.	Improving	Net loss worsens beyond -$400 million in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from -$104.2M in 2026-Q4 to -$35.5M in 2027-Q1, and net loss narrowed from -$59.5M to -$34.1M over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes a path to enhanced profitability and strong cash flow generation, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows at least 20% year over year	A supporting condition in Take-Two Interactive's published investment case. The stated target is >= 20% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.25

$5.45 → $10.25 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$9.17B

$9.20B → $9.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.45	$9,202,812,940	15 / 19
2026-07-25	$5.45	$9,202,812,940	15 / 19
2026-07-26	$9.99	$9,144,288,813	16 / 18
2026-07-27	$9.99	$9,144,288,813	16 / 18
2026-07-28	$9.99	$9,144,288,813	16 / 18
2026-07-29	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-07-30	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-07-31	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-01	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-02	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-08-03	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-08-04	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-08-05	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-08-06	$5.43	$9,222,497,150	15 / 19
2026-08-08	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-09	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-10	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-12	$5.45	$9,235,781,940	15 / 20
2026-08-13	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-14	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 19
2026-08-19	$9.99	$9,158,140,665	15 / 19
2026-08-20	$10.30	$9,202,219,622	16 / 19
2026-08-21	$10.30	$9,202,219,622	16 / 19
2026-08-22	$10.30	$9,202,233,780	16 / 19
2026-08-23	$10.32	$9,220,686,883	16 / 19
2026-08-24	$10.32	$9,220,686,883	16 / 19
2026-08-25	$10.32	$9,220,686,883	16 / 19
2026-08-26	$10.32	$9,200,555,209	16 / 19
2026-08-27	$10.32	$9,200,555,209	16 / 19
2026-08-28	$10.32	$9,200,555,209	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$10.32	$9,210,903,241	15 / 19
2026-08-30	$10.32	$9,210,903,241	15 / 19
2026-08-31	$10.32	$9,210,903,241	15 / 18
2026-09-01	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-02	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-03	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-04	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-05	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-06	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-07	$10.32	$9,209,378,173	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$10.26	$9,174,369,703	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$10.26	$9,174,369,703	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$10.26	$9,174,840,074	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$10.25	$9,171,247,481	13 / 16
2026-09-12	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-13	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-14	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-18	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-19	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-20	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-21	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-22	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-23	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-24	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-25	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-26	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-29	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-09-30	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-01	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$10.25	$9,171,229,192	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$10.25	$9,171,235,563	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$10.25	$9,171,235,563	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$10.25	$9,171,235,563	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$10.25	$9,172,346,674	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$10.25	$9,172,346,674	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$10.25	$9,170,866,239	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	27	1	1
2026-06-01	29	0	1
2026-07-01	28	0	1
2026-08-01	29	0	1
2026-09-01	28	0	1
2026-10-01	28	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSSep 28

$310.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$170.50$341.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful launch of Grand Theft Auto VIDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net Bookings grow to at least $6.72 billion in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce GAAP net loss significantlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 20% year over yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Take-Two Interactive outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround situation. TTWO is currently loss-making but is focused on improving its financial performance through key product launches and profitability enhancements.

What's priced into Take-Two Interactive

The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting some fragility. Investors may be cautious given the company's recent earnings miss and the overall headwinds in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priority to increase net bookings and is emphasizing the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. However, recent financial performance has been mixed, with slight declines in net bookings quarter-over-quarter.

What Take-Two Interactive hinges on

The thesis hinges on the successful launch of Grand Theft Auto VI and the ability to enhance profitability. Additionally, external factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and performance of sector peers will be critical to watch.