Reading TSBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 TSBK trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 18.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$261.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,445.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects Timberland's lending and profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TSBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued its earnings release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release also announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per common share. A copy of the earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc/WA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Timberland is doing. It will also give a future outlook.
Confirms one read:Earnings are better than expected. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings are lower than expected. This may show some problems.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Timberland's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 26, 2026, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued its earnings release for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The release also announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per common share. A copy of the earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On January 1, 2026, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) was notified that Delap LLP (“Delap”), the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, merged with Aprio, LLP effective on January 1, 2026. The combined audit practices operate as Aprio, LLP (“Aprio”). In connection with the notification of the merger, Delap has resigned as the auditors of the Company and the Audit Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors approved the a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . (b) Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and its financial institution subsidiary, Timberland Bank (“Bank”), announced that Todd Van Cise and the Company mutually agreed to cancel Mr. Van Cise’s employment agreement, effective December 11, 2025, to allow Mr. Van Cise to pursue other career opportunities. Mr. Van Cise had been with the Company…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 30, 2025, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued its earnings release for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The release also announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per common share. A copy of the earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference.