Reading TRST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRST free→Reading TRST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRST free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed, indicating some uncertainty in profit sustainability. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach to its financial decisions. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with TRST priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $53 TRST trades at 16× p/e — 1.3× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 12× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $42 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,410.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows TrustCo's commitment to returning value to shareholders. A change could signal financial strain.
Confirms:The Board declares the quarterly dividend at $0.38 per share again.
Disproves:The Board reduces the dividend below $0.38 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of TrustCo Bank Corp NY (“TrustCo” or the “Company”) adopted an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the TrustCo Bank Corp NY Amended and Restated 2019 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2019 Equity Incentive Plan”) on March 17, 2026, subject to shareholder approval at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing net interest income through loan portfolio repricing and deposit pricing strategies.
Continue the commitment to a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per share, reflecting strong shareholder support.
Continue the stock repurchase program to enhance shareholder value, targeting two million shares in 2026.
Improve operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income helps TrustCo make more money and plan for the future.
Confirms:Q2 net interest income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 net interest income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows TrustCo is making more money. A slowdown may worry about growth.
Confirms:Net income increases beyond $16.285 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $14.275 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The quality of loans affects TrustCo's risk and overall financial health.
Confirms:Nonperforming loans increase above 0.5% of total loans.
Disproves:Nonperforming loans remain below 0.4% of total loans.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better core banking performance. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income growth is more than 6% from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income growth is under 2% or lower than the last quarter.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is doing well. It also cares about its shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the dividend on time without cutting it.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows TrustCo is improving its profitability. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:Quarterly net income growth exceeds 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Quarterly net income growth is below 0% or declines from the previous quarter.
Other Events On May 20, 2026 TrustCo Bank Corp NY (the “Company”) announced that on May 19, 2026 its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.38 per share, or $1.52 per share on an annualized basis. The dividend will be payable on July 1, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 5, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing dividend declaration is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 21, 2026 TrustCo Bank Corp NY (“TrustCo”) issued a press release with results for the quarter ending March 31, 2026. Attached is a copy of the press release labeled as Exhibit 99(a).
Other Events On February 17, 2026 TrustCo Bank Corp NY (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.38 per share, or $1.52 per share on an annualized basis. The dividend will be payable on April 1, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 6, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing dividend declaration is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On January 27, 2026, Robert M. Leonard, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of TrustCo Bank Corp NY (the “Company”), delivered notice to the Company that he intends to retire from his positions with the Company and its subsidiaries, including Trustco Bank, effective December 31, 2026. -2- SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of…