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TripAdvisor (TRIP)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$12.56+1.21%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated due to a challenging sector backdrop that presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from TRIP and the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL and META, as these could significantly influence TRIP's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2011-12-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$13.24consensus
Range $12.56 – $13.82
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$28.57consensus
Range $20.32 – $29.25
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $13 TRIP trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $9.00–$19. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.1x
peer 12.1x · own history 11.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$13.09
range $12.48 – $13.86
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
48th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 14.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
95th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -24.9% / 30d, n=13for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.38 (-24.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 45.4% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$189.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$530.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,172.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 2026 earnings results on August 6
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is managing costs and growing revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRIP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, META, and NFLX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting TRIP and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TRIP and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If TRIP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TRIP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, META, and NFLX start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping TRIP and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Definitive Material Agreement. On June 14, 2026, TripAdvisor, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a put option agreement (the “ Put Option Agreement ”) with American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc., a New York corporation (“ Buyer ”). Pursuant to the Put Option Agreement, Buyer provided an irrevocable commitment to acquire (the “ Put Option ”) the legal entities comprising the Company’s online restaurant reservation and management platform in…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.