Reading TDAY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDAY free→Reading TDAY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDAY free→NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.61, TDAY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 58× p/e (4.9× the 12× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~62% near-term growth vs our ~-7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.69 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-61.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -1.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$169.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$384.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,032.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A better earnings report could show the recent rise in company momentum and insight scores.
Confirms:The earnings report shows a big increase in revenue and profit from the last quarter.
Disproves:The earnings report shows flat or lower revenue and profit from the last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TDAY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , USA TODAY Co., Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise su…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Publishing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDAY USA TODAY Co., Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NWS News Corp (Class B) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NWSA News Corp (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
NYT New York Times Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
IAC IAC Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve double-digit growth in free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $19.28M in 2026-Q1, down from $43.36M in 2025-Q4. Despite the stated goal, the financials show a decline in cash flow, indicating limited progress.
“Free cash flow is expected to grow double-digits versus the prior year.”
“Free cash flow is expected to grow double-digits versus the prior year.”
The company expects total revenues to be flat to down in the low single digits on a same store basis for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $584.996M in 2025-Q4 to $548.485M in 2026-Q1, reflecting a decline. The trajectory aligns with the guidance of flat to low single-digit declines.
The company aims to achieve growth in Total Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $30.675M in 2026-Q1, up from $19.635M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards growing Adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory shows positive movement in line with management's expectations.
“Total Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow versus the prior year.”
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean a turnaround in the declining sector. This might boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth turns positive year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative year over year for another quarter.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 5, 2026 , Michael Reed, Chief Executive Officer of USA TODAY Co., Inc. (the "Company"), during an investor call, characterized amounts as estimated damages in relation to the Company's ongoing litigation with Google instead of characterizing such amounts as Google's interference with the Company's revenues. The Company clarifies that it has not publicly disclosed, reported, or quantified any estimate of damages in connection with this litigation. However, cons…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , USA TODAY Co., Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or other…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025 , Gannett Co., Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwis…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 31, 2025 , Gannett Co., Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subje…
“Total revenues are expected to be flat to down in the low single digits on a same store basis.”
“Total revenues are expected to be flat to down in the low single digits on a same store basis.”
“Total Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow versus the prior year.”