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John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$45.09+4.06%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, indicating stability. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how leading companies in the Communication Services sector perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Publishing
- Market cap
- $2.27B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-03-10
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$47.73consensus
Range $44.22 – $52.50
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$48.76consensus
Range $42.43 – $55.10
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $43 WLY trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.0x
peer 12.0x · own history 11.2x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-8%
our forecast -1%
Our fair value
$47.04
range $43.43 – $51.73
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
81st pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
34th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish2 positive, 0 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$292.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,444.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation fell by 26.4 points (from 70.0 to 43.6).
Valuation fell. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is elevated.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for Q1 2026 earnings results on June 16
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Wiley is doing amid recent changes.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth and improved margins compared to prior quarters.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue drop or lower margins compared to previous quarters.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WLY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NYT, TDAY, and LEE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting WLY and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WLY and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If WLY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WLY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NYT, TDAY, and LEE start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping WLY and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-161d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 16, 2026, John Wiley & Sons Inc., a New York corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.