Reading SCHL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCHL free→Reading SCHL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCHL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPublishingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SCHL trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 102% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42, SCHL's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 55× p/e (3.6× the 15× p/e peer median, and 1.5× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~103% near-term growth vs our ~1% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $21 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 103% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-3.12 → $-3.29 (-5.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into sales and profit trends. This can impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better than expected sales and profit margins.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows worse than expected sales and profit margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SCHL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 19, 2026, Scholastic Corporation (the "Company") issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 announcing its results of operations for its quarter ended February 28, 2026. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any of Scholastic’s filings with the SEC under the S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Publishing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SCHL Scholastic Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NWS News Corp (Class B) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NWSA News Corp (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
NYT New York Times Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
IAC IAC Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement a $300 million share repurchase program, including a $200 million modified Dutch auction tender offer.
Establish a long-term net leverage target of 2.0-2.5x Adjusted EBITDA.
Advance strategy to drive long-term growth and margin expansion through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: This tender offer shows Scholastic wants to give cash back to shareholders. It may help investor confidence.
Confirms:The tender offer officially launches on March 23, 2026, as planned.
Disproves:The tender offer is delayed or canceled before the launch date.
Why it matters: Revenue performance will indicate if Scholastic can overcome challenges in the Education segment. It is key for growth.
Confirms one read:Q3 revenue shows a year-over-year increase, reversing the current trend of decline.
Confirms the other:Q3 revenue keeps going down compared to last year. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: The CPI report affects consumer spending and inflation outlook. This can influence Scholastic's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a decrease in inflation, boosting consumer spending.
Confirms the other:CPI shows inflation is rising. This cuts down on consumer spending.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase for Scholastic.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Scholastic is good at managing money. This can help keep finances stable.
Confirms:Net leverage ratio falls within the target range of 2.0-2.5x Adjusted EBITDA.
Disproves:Net leverage ratio is over 2.5x Adjusted EBITDA. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean less spending by consumers. This could hurt Scholastic's sales.
Confirms:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims rose a lot on June 4 and June 11.
Disproves:If unemployment claims go down or stay the same, it shows a stronger job market.
Why it matters: A rise in revenue growth would signal a positive change in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up to over 4% each year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales may mean good consumer spending. This is good for Scholastic's sales.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Retail sales growth is below 0% year over year.
Other Events On March 19, 2026, Scholastic Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $200 million of the Company’s common stock through a modified “Dutch Auction” tender offer ("Offer"), at an anticipated cash purchase price per share of not less than $36.00 per share and not more than $40.00 per share, less any applicable withholding taxes and without interest. The Offer is expected to commence on Monday, March…