USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)

NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.86-2.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge USA TODAY Co., Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	569.76M
EPS	—	0.17
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.18B
EPS	—	0.295
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	0.285

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow Adjusted EBITDA in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA growth is on track.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA declines in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total Adjusted EBITDA grew to $73.1 million in 2026-Q1, a 45% increase year-over-year, and was $56.9 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reiterated the goal of Adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow free cash flow double-digits in 2026	USA TODAY aims to grow free cash flow by double digits in 2026.	Intact	free cash flow growth falls below 5% in FY26	Free cash flow growth: 11.84% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202611.84203 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow was $6.4 million in 2026-Q1 and $19.6 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting an 11% increase year-over-year in Q2. Management has consistently reiterated the goal of double-digit free cash flow growth in 2026, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain flat to low single-digit revenue decline in 2026	Revenue decline is expected to be limited to low single digits.	Broken	revenue decline exceeds -5% in FY26	Revenue: $536.337M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -5% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 2026536,337,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e4d0a5e5-76a9-401a-8958-71a69ab4427c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenues declined from $548.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $536.3 million in 2026-Q2, a decrease consistent with management's guidance of flat to low single-digit declines on a same-store basis. The trajectory is mixed with ongoing revenue declines but within the stated range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$2.14B

$2.17B → $2.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,168,691,250	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,153,425,460	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,168,291,250	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,153,425,457	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,153,425,457	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,164,381,821	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,164,381,821	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,164,381,821	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,164,381,821	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,137,905,456	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	1	1
2026-06-01	4	1	1
2026-07-01	4	1	1
2026-08-01	4	1	1
2026-09-01	4	1	1
2026-10-01	4	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow Adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Grow free cash flow double-digits in 2026Free cash flow growth: 11.84%
Maintain flat to low single-digit revenue decline in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

USA TODAY Co., Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk business improvement thesis, not a steady compounder, because the company remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent quality and momentum measures improving, but execution still needs to show through in durable results.

What's priced into USA TODAY Co., Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: TDAY is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 0.63 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and the business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 goals are partly on track: second-quarter free cash flow rose 11% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA grew year over year in the first quarter, while revenue continued to decline within the stated range. The business remains loss-making, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; erratic earnings surprises and possible guidance cuts are risks despite a quiet near-term watch tier.

What USA TODAY Co., Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA growth while revenue declines remain contained. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.