USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$6.29-1.87%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain flat to low single-digit revenue decline in 2026: rev -8.3% vs -5%.
USA TODAY aims to grow free cash flow by double digits in 2026. Revenue decline is expected to be limited to low single digits. Adjusted EBITDA growth is on track. The company trades cheap versus peers with a PE of 85.9 against a peer median of 18.25.
Revenue is expected to decline about 3.3% next year. The company faces litigation risks and recent momentum fell sharply by 50 points. Free cash flow growth is uncertain with no guidance provided. The stock trades at a high PE of 85.9, which may not be justified.
The market expects about -3% revenue growth in the next year and an implied 3-year growth of 18.7%, which appears unjustified given recent trends. Our fair value is near $5.16, reflecting a cheap valuation versus peers but elevated risk.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA declines in FY26
Increase Total Adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year, supporting margin expansion and profitability.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth story with a focus on cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but faces headwinds from the broader Communication Services sector.
The market currently prices TDAY as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with expectations slightly below average. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, suggesting that the current valuation is justified given its performance.
Management is on track to grow free cash flow in double digits and to increase Adjusted EBITDA. However, revenue is expected to decline slightly, which could impact overall performance in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NWS, NWSA, and NYT, which could influence TDAY's trajectory. Any guidance cuts from TDAY would also be a significant negative factor to watch.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company is deepening its digital pivot, which supports growth in digital revenues. This advancement reinforces the thesis around TDAY's potential for growth. There are no new threats impacting the read.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total Adjusted EBITDA grew from approximately $39.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $56.9 million in 2026-Q2, showing a positive trajectory consistent with management's repeated guidance of EBITDA growth.
“Total Adjusted EBITDA of $56.9 million.”
“Total Adjusted EBITDA of $73.1 million, an increase of 44.7% year-over-year.”
“Total Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow versus the prior year.”
Breaks if: free cash flow growth falls below 5% in FY26
Continue to increase free cash flow with a target of double-digit growth versus the prior year in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow grew approximately 11% year-over-year to $19.6 million in 2026-Q2, continuing the trend of double-digit growth guidance reiterated each quarter. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in free cash flow.
“Free cash flow of $19.6 million, an increase of approximately 11% year-over-year.”
“Free cash flow (1) is expected to grow double-digits versus the prior year.”
“Free cash flow (1) is expected to grow double-digits versus the prior year.”
Breaks if: revenue decline exceeds -5% in FY26
Manage total revenues to be flat to down in the low single digits on a same-store basis for full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenues declined from $571.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $536.3 million in 2026-Q2, a decrease of about 6.2%, consistent with the guidance of flat to low single-digit declines. The trajectory matches management's stated outlook.
“Total revenues of $536.3 million decreased 8.3% year-over-year and decreased 6.1% on a same-store basis.”
“Total revenues of $548.5 million decreased 4.0% year-over-year and 1.8% on a same-store basis.”
“Total revenues are expected to be flat to down in the low single digits on a same store basis.”
Overall, TDAY's fundamentals are stable, but the company faces risks from sector performance and revenue trends. Not investment advice.