Reading STEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with STEL trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 STEL trades at 19× p/e — 1.5× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 15× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 51% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.51 (-5.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$65.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$180.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,168.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health. They will also show growth plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STEL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. Declaration of Dividend On May 20, 2026, the Stellar Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing that on May 20, 2026, its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.15 per share of common stock p ayable on June 26, 2026, to the shareholders of record at the close of business on June 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, including the cautionary language regarding forwa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STEL Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the merger with Prosperity Bancshares to create a larger Texas banking platform.
Continue to declare and pay a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders.
Focus on growing net income through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company wants to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid on time, showing the company's financial strength.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled, raising concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand or more competition in the market.
Confirms:Total loans grow by more than $250 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total loans grow by less than $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows strong business performance and good management.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $27 million, showing growth from Q1's $27 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income drops below $27 million. This may show problems.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin show how well the bank earns interest.
Confirms one read:Q2 net interest margin is over 4.24%. This shows better earnings.
Confirms the other:Q2 net interest margin is below 4.24%. This may show earning issues.
Why it matters: This merger is key for growth. Delays could hurt future plans and investor confidence.
Confirms:A public announcement confirming the merger is on track and expected to close by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Any news of delays or regulatory issues that push the merger timeline back beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold shows strong earnings growth and good cost management.
Confirms:Adjusted net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $30 million.
Disproves:Adjusted net income for Q2 2026 is below $29 million.
Other Events. As announced on January 28, 2026, Stellar Bancorp, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Stellar” or the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated January 27, 2026 (the “Merger Agreement”), with Prosperity Bancshares, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Prosperity”), pursuant to which Stellar will merge with and into Prosperity (the “Merger”), with Prosperity as the surviving corporation in the Merger. Immediately following the Merger, Stellar’s wholly owned banking subsidia…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…
Other Events. Declaration of Dividend On February 25, 2026, the Stellar Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing that on February 25, 2026, its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.15 per share of common stock p ayable on March 31, 2026, to the shareholders of record at the close of business on March 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, including the cautionary language reg…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On January 27, 2026, Stellar Bancorp, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Stellar”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Prosperity Bancshares, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Prosperity”). The Merger Agreement provides that, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Stellar will merge with and into Prosperity (the “Merger”), with Prosperity continuing as the surviving corporation in…