Reading SPFI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPFI free→Reading SPFI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPFI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 SPFI trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.95 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$83.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$252.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,325.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak earnings may show problems in the sector. This can change how investors feel.
Confirms:Earnings report shows a decline in net income or revenue year over year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows growth in net income or revenue year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPFI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, South Plains Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of the Company’s press release covering such announcement and certain other matters is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPFI South Plains Financial, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of BOH Holdings to expand market presence.
Continue to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are easing. A drop below the median signals a slowdown.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth falls below its median level.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: More claims might mean the economy is weak. This can hurt financial performance.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than in previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Other Events. On April 16, 2026, South Plains Financial, Inc. issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on May 11, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously announced, on December 1, 2025, South Plains Financial, Inc., a Texas corporation (“SPFI”), and BOH Holdings, Inc., a Texas corporation (“BOH”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Reorganization Agreement”), providing for the acquisition by SPFI of BOH through the merger of BOH with and into SPFI, with SPFI surviving the merger (the “Merger”). The Merger was completed effective as of April 1, 2026. Immed…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the terms of the Reorganization Agreement, as of the effective time of the Merger, the Board of Directors of SPFI (the “SPFI Board”) increased the number of directors of SPFI from six (6) to seven (7), and appointed Mr. James D. Stein to the SPFI Board as a Class II director to serve until SPFI’s 2027 annual meeting of shareholders or u…
Other Events. On February 18, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of South Plains Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a new stock repurchase program for up to $10.0 million of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Stock Repurchase Program”). The Stock Repurchase Program will conclude on February 23, 2027, subject to the earlier termination or extension of the Stock Repurchase Program by the Board or the $10.0 million designated for the Stock Repurchase Program…