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Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$34.08-1.02%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, SBSI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes from SBSI and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $1.02B
- Employees
- 781
- IPO date
- 1995-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$33.37consensus
Range $16.71 – $38.24
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$35.61consensus
Range $23.56 – $97.49
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $34 SBSI trades at 25× p/e — 2.0× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 12× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $36 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.9x
peer 12.2x · own history 11.7x
Premium
2.0x peer
2.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$35.63
range $16.71 – $39.32
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
84th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
72nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +8.9% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.85 (+8.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,577.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for loan growth exceeding 2.7% in Q2
Why it matters: More loan growth shows strong demand and good lending plans. It can raise net interest income.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 loan growth is over 2.7%. This shows strong demand and good lending plans.
Disproves:Q2 loan growth is under 2.7%. This suggests weak demand or more competition.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SBSI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SBSI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SBSI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SBSI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SBSI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on SBSI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 30, 2026, Southside Bancshares, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the attached exhibit, is being furnished as provided in General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, to the Securities and Exchange Commiss…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.