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EchoStar (SATS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$120.97+2.63%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SATS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecom Services
- Market cap
- $34.16B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2008-02-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $120.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$173.97consensus
Range $119.31 – $228.62
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$140.47consensus
Range $97.55 – $183.40
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $118 SATS trades at 2× p/s — 1.7× the 1× p/s peer median, and above its own 1× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $172 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $155–$165. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
2.2x
peer 1.3x · own history 0.7x
Premium
1.7x peer
3.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-32%
our forecast 37%
Our fair value
$172.13
range $119.87 – $224.38
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
34th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +160.7% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.28 → $0.17 (+160.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.4% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$409.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,991.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for cash interest payment decisions on June 1
Why it matters: Not paying interest shows financial trouble. This could hurt operations and investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:EchoStar pays the cash interest on its notes as planned.
Disproves:EchoStar misses cash interest payments again. This shows it has bigger financial problems.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SATS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and T keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting SATS and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SATS and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If SATS beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +42% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and T start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping SATS and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SATS and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 2.04
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. EchoStar Corporation (“EchoStar”) has elected not to make approximately $183 million in cash interest payments due on June 1, 2026 (the “Interest Payments”) with respect to its DISH DBS Corporation (“DDBS”) subsidiary’s 5.25% secured notes due 2026 (the “2026 Notes”), 5.75% secured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”) and 5.125% unsecured notes due 2029 (the “202…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.