Reading SATS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SATS free→Reading SATS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SATS free→
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SATS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $120.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $118 SATS trades at 2× p/s — 1.7× the 1× p/s peer median, and above its own 1× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $172 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $155–$165. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.28 → $0.17 (+160.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$409.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,991.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Not paying interest shows financial trouble. This could hurt operations and investor trust.
Confirms:EchoStar pays the cash interest on its notes as planned.
Disproves:EchoStar misses cash interest payments again. This shows it has bigger financial problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SATS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. EchoStar Corporation (“EchoStar”) has elected not to make approximately $183 million in cash interest payments due on June 1, 2026 (the “Interest Payments”) with respect to its DISH DBS Corporation (“DDBS”) subsidiary’s 5.25% secured notes due 2026 (the “2026 Notes”), 5.75% secured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”) and 5.125% unsecured notes due 2029 (the “202…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$155.00 – $165.00 (median $161.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communication Services (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SATS EchoStar | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NFLX Netflix | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enhance financial flexibility to support potential M&A transactions.
Engage in restructuring to enhance strategic optionality and flexibility.
Leverage the CEO transition to implement strategic changes within the company.
Why it matters: Updates on the CEO change can show how it may affect company plans and results.
Confirms one read:Good news about the new CEO's plans and first steps.
Confirms the other:Bad feedback or doubt about the new CEO's plans.
Why it matters: A good result could clear regulatory issues and boost investor trust.
Confirms:FCC confirms EchoStar has met all buildout requirements.
Disproves:FCC finds EchoStar has not met its obligations, leading to penalties.
Why it matters: M&A activity can improve EchoStar's market position and financial options. It may open new growth paths.
Confirms:Announcement of a new M&A deal that aligns with the company's strategic goals.
Disproves:No M&A activity or bad news about possible deals.
Why it matters: Progress on restructuring can help with financial stability. It can also create growth options.
Confirms:Management says the restructuring plan is going well.
Disproves:Restructuring efforts may have big delays or issues.
Why it matters: This sale could help EchoStar manage its money better and support growth.
Confirms:The sale will close once it gets all needed approvals.
Disproves:The sale is delayed or stopped due to regulatory problems.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 19, 2026, EchoStar Corporation, DISH Network Corporation, DISH DBS Corporation (“DDBS”) and certain of DDBS’s subsidiaries (DDBS and its subsidiaries, collectively, the “Company”) entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (the “RSA” and the transactions contemplated thereby, the “Transactions”) with an ad hoc group (the “AHG”) representing more than 82% of holders of debt securities issued by DDBS (the “DDBS Notes”). The Transactions co…
below. The RSA adds certain protections for the DDBS Notes and adds financial flexibility and strategic optionality for the company, including increased flexibility to engage in potential M&A transactions. In addition, the DDBS noteholders and the Company mutually agreed that all pending litigation would be dismissed with prejudice. The foregoing description of the RSA does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the RSA, which is filed herewith as Exhi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 26, 2025 (the “Effective Date”), in connection with Mr. Hamid Akhavan’s appointment as Chief Executive Officer, EchoStar Capital, Mr. Akhavan and EchoStar Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a new letter agreement (the “Letter Agreement”) that replaces and supersedes the previous letter agreement with Mr. Akhavan dated October 2,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 6, 2025, the Company announced the creation of a new division within EchoStar to be named EchoStar Capital. In connection therewith, effective November 6, 2025, Charles W. Ergen, Chairman of EchoStar, has accepted his appointment by the board of directors of the Company (the “ Board ”) as Chairman, President and Chief Executive Office…