Reading RUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RUM free→Reading RUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RUM free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 135% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players in the Communication Services sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.75, RUM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 17× p/s (14.7× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.17 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 145% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.10 → $-0.10 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$302.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$673.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,339.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: What management thinks about making money can change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Management has a clear plan to make money in the next year.
Confirms the other:Management says there will be more delays in making money.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RUM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Rumble Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibits, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Interactive Media & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RUM Rumble, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | expensive | high |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RDDT REDDIT, INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on realizing revenue growth from investments made throughout 2025.
Focus on addressing the recurring issue of earnings misses.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the company is improving after a decline.
Confirms:Rumble reports positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Disproves:Rumble has reported negative revenue growth for two quarters in a row.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 26, 2026, Rumble Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has appointed Mike Masci as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 31, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), to succeed Brandon Alexandroff, who is transitioning to the role of strategic advisor to the Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Masci, 41, is a technology executive with deep expert…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Rumble Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibits, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 10, 2025, Rumble Inc. (“Rumble”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibits, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. A. Business Combination Agreement On November 10, 2025, Rumble Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Rumble ”), and Northern Data AG, a German stock corporation ( Aktiengesellschaft ) incorporated under the laws of Germany (“ Northern Data ”), entered into a business combination agreement (the “ BCA ”). Subject to the terms and conditions of the BCA, Rumble will submit a voluntary public exchange offer to all shareholders of Northern Data to exchange each…