Reading RRBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRBI free→Reading RRBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $90 RRBI trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.75 → $1.76 (+0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$257.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $902.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect lending rates. This also impacts how much money banks make.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates or hints at future increases.
Confirms the other:FOMC maintains current interest rates or signals future cuts.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RRBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 28, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Red River Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed A. Peyton Bush, IV and R. Chance DeWitt, M.D. to serve as directors of the Company and Red River Bank, its wholly-owned subsidiary, effective May 28, 2026. Mr. Bush and Dr. DeWitt will stand for election at the Company’s 2027 annual meeting…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RRBI Red River Bancshares, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on increasing net interest income and net interest margin FTE in the first quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from $39.199 million in 2025-Q4 to $39.145 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress in increasing net interest income and margin so far.
“Depending on balance sheet activity and the interest rate environment, we expect net interest income and net interest margin FTE to increase slightly in the first quarter of 2026.”
Continue to provide consistent dividend payouts to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.12 in 2025-Q2 to $0.25 in 2026-Q1, indicating a commitment to maintaining and increasing dividend payouts. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“Dividend per share increased to $0.25.”
“Dividend per share was $0.15.”
“Dividend per share was $0.12.”
“Dividend per share was $0.12.”
Remain vigilant in monitoring economic conditions and customer needs.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials show stable revenue and net income, with revenue at $39.145 million and net income at $11.971 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory indicates a cautious approach to economic conditions.
“We remain positive, yet vigilant, as we monitor our communities and stay close to our customers.”
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below 15% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth prospects.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected earnings growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weaker than expected earnings growth.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item. 9.01 Financial Statements and…
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item. 9.01 Financial Statements and…
Other Events. On December 18, 2025, Red River Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its board of directors has renewed its stock repurchase program for the Company’s common stock, no par value per share (the “Repurchase Program”). A copy of the press release issued by the Company announcing the Repurchase Program is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Item. 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits. The following are furnished…
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item. 9.01 Financial Statements and…