Reading RNST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RNST free→Reading RNST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RNST free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The three-year read suggests that peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis). This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 RNST trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 54%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.92 (+3.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 9.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,719.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Renasant's financial health and growth path.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RNST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement . On May 4, 2026, Renasant Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. and Stephens Inc., as representatives of the underwriters listed on Schedule I to the Underwriting Agreement, for the issuance and sale of $300 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.25% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”), at a public…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RNST Renasant Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing strategic acquisitions to enhance growth and market presence.
Execute the issuance of $300 million in subordinated notes to strengthen capital structure.
Enhance customer relationships and expand presence in Southeastern U.S. markets.
Why it matters: Closing the notes will help Renasant's capital and support its growth plans.
Confirms:The offering closes on May 7, 2026, with all customary conditions met.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth shows customer confidence. It also helps fund loans.
Confirms:Deposits increase by more than $626 million linked quarter in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Deposits decrease or grow less than $626 million linked quarter in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Renasant needs to grow customer ties. This is key for its strategy in main markets.
Confirms:Look for more new customer accounts or deposits in the Southeast in earnings reports.
Disproves:Decline in customer accounts or stagnant growth in the Southeastern markets.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs may show credit quality problems. This can affect overall financial health.
Confirms:Net loan charge-offs reported above $2.3 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net loan charge-offs remain at or below $2.3 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completing more acquisitions would show Renasant is sticking to its growth plan. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Another acquisition will be announced. It will add value to the company.
Disproves:No new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing acquisitions could help Renasant grow. It will also strengthen its market position.
Confirms:Look for news about a completed acquisition. It should add important assets or customers.
Disproves:No acquisitions completed by the end of the quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect Renasant's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% over the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 12%.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Representatives of Renasant Corporation (“Renasant” or the “Company”) will make presentations to investors during various conferences in the second quarter of 2026. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K is a copy of the materials that the Company will make available at these presentations. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “file…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Renasant Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the first quarter of 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 28, 2026, the Company also made available presentation materials (the “Presentation”) prepared for use with its earnings conference call on April 29, 2026. The Presentation is attached hereto and incorporated herein as Exhibit 99.2. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…