Reading QCRH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QCRH free→Reading QCRH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QCRH free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, QCRH is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If QCRH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $96.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $96 QCRH trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.99 → $1.91 (-4.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$233.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,691.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop signals weakening momentum.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for QCRH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 20, 2026, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on July 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on June 18, 2026. On May 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the annual meeting results and the announcement of the cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
QCRH QCR Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the lower end of capital markets revenue guidance to a range of $60 million to $70 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management increased the capital markets revenue guidance range to $60 million to $70 million. Despite the guidance increase, revenue declined from $127.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $120.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in achieving the higher revenue targets.
“We are increasing the lower end of our capital markets revenue guidance by $5 million.”
“We are increasing the upper end of our capital markets revenue guidance.”
Management reaffirmed gross loan growth guidance of 10% to 15% annualized for the final three quarters of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management reaffirmed gross loan growth guidance of 10% to 15% annualized for the final three quarters of 2026. However, no specific loan growth figures are provided in the financials to assess progress against this target.
“We are reaffirming our gross loan growth guidance of 10% to 15% annualized.”
The company declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share, up from $0.06 in previous quarters.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company increased its dividend per share from $0.06 in 2025-Q3 to $0.10 in 2026-Q1. This reflects a commitment to returning value to shareholders, despite a decline in net income from $36.7 million in 2025-Q3 to $33.4 million in 2026-Q1.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” by the Company for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended…
Other Events. On February 18, 2026, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on April 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on March 19, 2026. On February 19, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the announcement of the cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” by the Company for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended…
Other Events. On November 19, 2025, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.06 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on January 7, 2026 to stockholders of record on December 23, 2025. On November 21, 2025, the Company issued a press release regarding the announcement of the cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
“The Company declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share of its common stock.”
“The Company declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share of its common stock.”