Reading PROV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PROV free→Reading PROV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PROV free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PROV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The three-year read shows peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis). If PROV cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 PROV trades at 18× p/e — 1.5× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $13 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.28 (-6.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$37.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$125.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $535.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is managing in a slowing sector. Strong results could improve sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better than expected revenue and profit growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue and profit declines compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PROV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (the "Corporation"), the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. (the "Bank"), announced that David S. Weiant has resigned from his position, in connection with his retirement, as Senior Vice President and Chief Lending Officer of the Bank, effective July 15, 2026. Mr. Weiant’s notice in connection with…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PROV Provident Financial Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Provident Financial Holdings continues to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Provident Financial Holdings declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share in both 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3. This consistent declaration indicates a stable capital allocation strategy, though no specific financial impact is detailed in the provided data.
“Provident announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share.”
“Provident announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share.”
Provident Financial Holdings plans to repurchase up to 5% of its common stock over a one-year period.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Provident Financial Holdings announced a plan to repurchase up to 5% of its common stock, approximately 318,875 shares, over a one-year period. The financials do not yet reflect any buyback activity, indicating the initiative is in its early stages.
“Provident announced the repurchase of up to 5% of its common stock.”
Provident Financial Holdings is addressing challenges related to earnings misses in recent quarters.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Provident Financial Holdings reported earnings misses for the quarters ending March 31, 2026, and December 31, 2025. Revenue decreased from $141.46M in 2026-Q1 to $138.6M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in addressing these challenges.
“Provident reported earnings misses for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. ( “ Corporation ” ), the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., distributed its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events On April 23, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Corporation”) announced that the Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share. Shareholders of the Corporation’s common stock at the close of business on May 14, 2026 will be entitled to receive the cash dividend. The cash dividend will be payable on June 4, 2026. The news release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference her…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 27, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. ( “ Corporation ” ), the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., distributed its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Corporation”) announced that the Corporation’s Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to five percent (5%) of the Company’s common stock, approximately 318,875 shares. Beginning on January 23, 2026, the Company will purchase the shares from time to time in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions over a one-year period depending on market conditions, the capital requirements of the Compa…
“Provident reported earnings misses for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”