Reading PEBO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PEBO free→Reading PEBO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PEBO free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, but PEBO's capital stance is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether PEBO cuts guidance on the next call, as that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 PEBO trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.84 → $0.84 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$218.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,255.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend. This impacts banks and the economy.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up each month. This shows that people are spending more.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down each month. This shows that people are spending less.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PEBO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise stated in such filing. During the conference call, management referred to non-Generally Acce…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc/OH | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Peoples Bancorp plans to acquire Citizens National Corporation in a cash and stock transaction.
Peoples Bancorp continues to declare quarterly dividends, recently increasing to $0.42 per share.
Peoples Bancorp expects loan growth to be between 3% and 5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates and how banks lend money. This impacts bank profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, which could boost bank margins.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates, which could compress bank margins.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence in Peoples Bancorp.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Entry Into Material Definitive Agreement On April 20, 2026, Peoples Bancorp Inc., an Ohio corporation (“Peoples”), and Citizens National Corporation, a Kentucky corporation (“Citizens”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) pursuant to which Peoples will acquire Citizens in a cash and stock transaction. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Citizens will merge with and into Peoples (the “Merger”), with Peoples as the surviving corporation in the Merger. Immediatel…
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Peoples Bancorp Inc. ("Peoples") issued a news release regarding its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Peoples also provided electronic presentation slides that will be used in connection with its conference call to discuss earnings. A copy of the electronic slides is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8…
Other Events Declaration of Dividend: On April 21, 2026, Peoples issued a news release announcing that the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per common share on April 20, 2026. A copy of the news release is included as Exhibit 99.3 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Merger Agreement On April 21, 2026, Peoples Bancorp Inc. (“Peoples”) announced that it has entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger dated April 20, 2026 (“Merger Agreement”) with Citizens National Corp…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise stated in such filing. During the conference call, management referred to non-Generally Acce…