Reading PEBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, with profits not backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PEBK is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 PEBK trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $44 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 2 guided quarters · -2.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$304.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,294.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact loan rates and borrowing costs for PEBK. This can affect profitability.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This leads to higher net interest margins.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PEBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 earnings results. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary language identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99(a). Consequently, it is not deemed "filed" f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PEBK Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect investor confidence in PEBK.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can indicate economic weakness. This could impact loan demand and credit quality for PEBK.
Confirms:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims went up for two weeks in a row.
Disproves:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims go down or stay the same.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 26, 2026, Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings results. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary language identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99(a). Consequently, it is not…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 20, 2025, Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing third quarter 2025 earnings results. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary language identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99(a). Consequently, it is not deemed "filed"…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 21, 2025, Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing second quarter 2025 earnings results. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary language identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99(a). Consequently, it is not deemed "filed" f…