Reading PBHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBHC free→Reading PBHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBHC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades; the read is cheap. The outlook hinges on guidance changes from PBHC and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,218.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to the financial sector's health. A drop signals potential trouble for Pathfinder.
Confirms:Pathfinder's revenue growth is less than its average from the past.
Disproves:Pathfinder's revenue growth is more than its average from the past.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PBHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 8, 2019, Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Castle Creek Capital Partners VII, L.P. (“Castle Creek”), pursuant to which the Company sold Castle Creek certain securities of the Company in a private placement. In connection with the private placement, the Company entered into a registration rights agreement with Castle Creek, also dated as of May 8, 2019 (the “Registration Rights Agreement”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2020-Q3, 2021-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PBHC Pathfinder Bancorp Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | — | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Pathfinder Bancorp aims to maintain a consistent quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share consistently $0.10 over 4 quarters, reflecting a stable capital allocation strategy. Despite fluctuations in net income, the company has maintained this dividend level, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
“The Company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.”
“The Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.”
“Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.”
“Announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.”
Pathfinder Bancorp aims to generate more consistent earnings during 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income improved from -$5.56M in 2025-Q4 to $2.41M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards more consistent earnings. This improvement suggests positive momentum, though sustained performance is needed to confirm consistency.
“We believe these actions position the Company to generate more consistent earnings during 2026.”
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show economic problems. This might affect Pathfinder's results.
Confirms:Unemployment claims have risen a lot since the last report.
Disproves:Unemployment claims are lower or steady compared to the last report.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Pathfinder can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows losses are getting bigger or staying the same from last quarter.
to this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as shall be expressly set forth in such filing.
Other Events On March 30, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per voting common and non-voting common share and a cash dividend of $0.10 per notional share for the issued warrant. The dividend is payable on May 8, 2026 to shareholders of record on April 17, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Subsequent to the January 29, 2026 earnings press release, the Company recorded an additional income tax benefit of $1.5 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. As a result, the income tax benefit for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised to $3.0 million, and the…
to this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as shall be expressly set forth in such filing.