Reading PBFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBFS free→Reading PBFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBFS free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PBFS is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 110% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 PBFS trades at 21× p/e — 1.7× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $7.99 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 110% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,040.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into Pioneer Bancorp's performance and outlook. It could impact stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is better than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PBFS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On April 24, 2026, Pioneer Bank, National Association (“Pioneer” or the “Company”), through its wholly owned subsidiary, Targeted Lending Holdings, LLC (the “Purchaser”), completed the acquisition of 100% of the issued and outstanding membership interests (the “Purchased Interests”) of Targeted Lending Co., LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Targeted Lending”), pursuant to an Equity Purchase Agreement, dated as of April 24, 2026 (the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc/NY | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Successfully complete the acquisition of Targeted Lending Co. to expand business operations.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This can hurt Pioneer Bancorp's loans and growth.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise a lot compared to previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in Pioneer Bancorp.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. issued an earnings release announcing its financial results at or for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced therein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 30, 2026, Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. issued an earnings release announcing its financial results at or for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the earnings release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced therein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On December 16, 2025, Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) adopted the Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. Targeted Incentive Plan (the “Plan”) to assist the Company in its ability to motivate, attract and retain qualified executives. The Plan provides eligible executives, including the named executive officers in the Company’s 2025 proxy statement, with the…
Other Events On December 17, 2025, Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. (“Pioneer”) , a leading financial institution in New York’s Capital Region, announced it has adopted a new stock repurchase program. Under the repurchase program, Pioneer may repurchase up to 5% of its outstanding common stock, or 1,254,027 shares of its common stock . This is Pioneer’s second stock repurchase program since completing its mutual holding company reorganization and related stock offering. Pioneer has also completed its in…