Reading ORRF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORRF free→Reading ORRF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORRF free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from ORRF and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC, as these could significantly impact ORRF's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 ORRF trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.04 → $1.03 (-0.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$253.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,317.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on financial health and growth. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows worse results than expected. This means weak performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORRF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events (a) Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced today that it will redeem the Company's $31,000,000 outstanding 4.5% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes (the “Notes”) due 2030, on June 30, 2026 (the "Redemption Date") at a redemption price in cash equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, on the principal amount of the Notes to, but excluding, the Redemption Date. The Notes were assumed by the Company upon…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORRF Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay a consistent cash dividend of $0.30 per common share.
Plan to redeem $31 million of 4.5% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes by June 30, 2026.
Focus on maintaining stable earnings per share performance over recent quarters.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims affect how much people spend and how banks do. This is important.
Confirms one read:Claims are down. This suggests a stronger job market and more lending could happen.
Confirms the other:Claims are up. This suggests a weaker job market and less lending could happen.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Orrstown's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 5, 2026, the Boards of Directors of Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly-owned subsidiary Orrstown Bank (the “Bank”) elected Adam L. Metz as the President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of the Company and the Bank, respectively, effective upon the retirement of Thomas R. Quinn, Jr. from those positions with…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 21, 2026, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to report earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference.
Regulation FD In connection with the press release announcing the Company’s quarterly earnings, the Company posted an investor presentation to its website at www.orrstown.com . A copy of the investor presentation is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2, and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference. The Board of Directors of the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per common share, payable May 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 5, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 27, 2026, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to report earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference.