Reading OCFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OCFC free→Reading OCFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OCFC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, though OCFC trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 OCFC trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.47 (-5.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.3% above current price.
3 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$258.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,539.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and support for shareholders. It builds investor trust.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the dividend stays at $0.2 per share.
Disproves:A cut or reduction in the dividend has been announced.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OCFC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Board of Directors As previously disclosed on OceanFirst’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on December 29, 2025, at the Second Effective Time and in accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement, (a) the following six former directors of Flushing were appointed to serve as directors on the board of directors of OceanFirst (the “ OceanFirst Boa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OCFC OceanFirst Financial Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize and integrate the acquisition of Flushing Financial Corporation.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Flushing Financial was completed on June 1, 2026. This aligns with the stated priority to finalize the acquisition, indicating successful delivery on this strategic goal.
“OceanFirst announced the completion of the acquisition of Flushing Financial on June 1, 2026.”
“Proposed sale of multifamily loans acquired in the Flushing acquisition.”
Continue to distribute a quarterly dividend of $0.2 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.2 from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with the company delivering on its commitment to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $16.85 million in 2025-Q4 to $27.05 million in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory. This indicates progress in enhancing operating income, aligning with management's growth priority.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is controlling costs and growing well. This affects performance.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Disproves:Operating income declines or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for OceanFirst's growth strategy. It could boost market share and income.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the acquisition is done. Integration will then start.
Disproves:The acquisition might be delayed by regulators. It could also be canceled.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects investor outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in the Introductory Note of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
OTHER EVENTS On June 8, 2026, OceanFirst Financial Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the proposed sale of multifamily loans that the Company acquired in its recently completed acquisition of Flushing Financial Corporation. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. At the effective time of the Second-Step Merger (the “ Second Effective Time ”), in connection with the Closing, OceanFirst assumed Flushing’s obligations with respect to an aggregate principal amount of $251,857,000 of subordinated debt and junior subordinated debt securities, which were previously issued by Flushing, comprising of (a) $125,000,000 in aggregate principal amount…
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share on April 15, 2026.”
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“Operating income increased to $27.05 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Operating income was $16.85 million.”
“Operating income was $22.54 million.”