Reading OBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 OBK trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.94 → $1.00 (+6.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,709.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop signals weakening momentum.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Origin Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company" or the "Registrant") issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results of operations. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. On Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Central Time, the Company will host an investor conference call and webcast to review its first quarter 2026 financial results. The webcast will i…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a return on average assets (ROAA) run rate of 1.15% or higher by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a target to achieve a ROAA run rate of 1.15% by 4Q26. Current financials show net income of $27.69M in 2026-Q1, down from $29.52M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“We updated our near term ROAA run rate target to 1.15% or higher by 4Q26.”
“We have updated our near term ROAA run rate target to 1.15% or higher by 4Q26.”
The company has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, maintaining its commitment to return capital to shareholders.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company increased its quarterly dividend from $0.15 to $0.25 per share, reflecting a commitment to capital allocation. This increase aligns with the company's strategy to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into performance and growth trends for the company.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This affects how much money banks make and how people feel about the market.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements When used in filings by t…
Other Events On April 22, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share of its common stock. The cash dividend will be paid on May 29, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3, and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026, Origin Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company" or the "Registrant") issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results of operations. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. On Thursday, January 29, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Central Time, the Company will host an investor conference call and webcast to review its fourth quarter and full year 2025 fin…
Other Events On January 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share of its common stock. The cash dividend will be paid on February 27, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 13, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3, and incorporated herein by reference.
“The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share.”