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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$50.14+1.17%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $1.55B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2018-04-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$48.79consensus
Range $46.25 – $51.13
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$60.22consensus
Range $55.49 – $69.77
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $50 OBK trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.9x
peer 12.4x · own history —
Premium
1.1x peer
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$49.67
range $47.04 – $52.08
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
95th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
81st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +6.6% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.94 → $1.00 (+6.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,709.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below its median
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop signals weakening momentum.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OBK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting OBK and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If OBK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If OBK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping OBK and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on OBK and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-221mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Origin Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company" or the "Registrant") issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results of operations. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. On Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Central Time, the Company will host an investor conference call and webcast to review its first quarter 2026 financial results. The webcast will i…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.