Reading NSTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSTS free→Reading NSTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSTS free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, NSTS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14, NSTS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 276× p/s (93.6× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-44% near-term growth vs our ~3% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -122.60x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$37.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$164.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,268.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports growth and stability. A drop could raise concerns about financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations stays above $1 million for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $500,000 in the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NSTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on May 12, 2026, NSTS Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and Brookfield Bancshares, Inc. (“Brookfield”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), pursuant to which the Company will be merged with and into Brookfield, and the Company’s subsidiary bank, North Shore Trust and Savings (the “Bank”), will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brookfield and continue to operate under its existing name and federal savings association charte…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NSTS NSTS Bancorp Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the merger with Brookfield Bancshares, making North Shore Trust and Savings a wholly-owned subsidiary.
Focus on improving operating income, which has fluctuated over recent quarters.
Enhance cash flow from operations, which has shown variability in recent quarters.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact NSTS's performance. It signals broader market challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median of 15%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: The merger is key for growth and could change NSTS's market position. Any delays or issues could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:A press release confirms the merger is complete or shows big progress.
Disproves:Announcement of delays or problems in the merger process.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for financial health. Poor results may mean ongoing issues.
Confirms:Operating income rises by over 10% from last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same compared to last quarter.
above, the Company and Parent issued a joint press release on May 12, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 4, 2026, Nathan E. Walker, Executive Vice President of NSTS Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), and Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company’s bank subsidiary, North Shore Trust and Savings (the “Bank”), passed away. On April 9, 2026, Stephen G. Lear, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, was appointed Chief Executiv…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 18, 2025, following the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, the Boards of Directors (together, the “Boards”) of each of NSTS Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and North Shore Trust and Savings (the “Bank”) appointed John S. Pucin, age 59, as a Director of the Company and the Bank. Mr. Pucin fills the vacancy on…