Reading NPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPB free→Reading NPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, NPB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This means it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 NPB trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.69 → $0.68 (-1.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$335.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,527.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into Northpointe's financial health and growth. This could influence investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected revenue and profit growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weaker than expected revenue and profit growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NPB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and 7.01, including the information incorporated herein from Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NPB Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend per share of $0.025 to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently maintained a dividend per share of $0.025 from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no change in the dividend amount over the period, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
“The company maintained a dividend per share of $0.025.”
“The company maintained a dividend per share of $0.025.”
“The company maintained a dividend per share of $0.025.”
“The company maintained a dividend per share of $0.025.”
Focus on increasing net income through operational improvements.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income increased from $20.34 million in 2025-Q2 to $22.15 million in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory in profitability. This indicates progress in operational improvements aimed at boosting net income.
Aim to stabilize operating income amidst fluctuating revenues.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $29.43 million in 2026-Q1, down from $31.97 million in 2025-Q4 but up from $26.65 million in 2025-Q2. This reflects efforts to stabilize operating income despite revenue fluctuations, with mixed progress.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show the economy is weak. This could hurt Northpointe's loans and growth.
Confirms:Unemployment claims have gone up a lot compared to last weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay steady at lower levels.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Northpointe's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median level for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level for the sector.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 12, 2026, Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Subordinated Note Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with an institutional accredited investor (the “Purchaser”), pursuant to which the Company sold and issued a $20.0 million 7.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Note due 2036 (the “Note”). The Note was issued by the Company to the Purchaser at a price equal to 100% of their face amount. The Company intend…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) Departure of Directors On February 27, 2026, the Boards of Directors (the "Boards") of Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiary, Northpointe Bank (the "Bank"), received notices from R. Jeffrey Dean, Bruce L. Edger and John M. Eggemeyer III of their intention to retire from the Boards at the conclusion of their current term…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) Appointment of New Director On February 27, 2026, the Boards of Directors ("the Boards") of Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiary, Northpointe Bank ("the Bank"), voted, effective February 27, 2026, to increase the size of each of the Boards from 10 to 11 directors and to appoint the Honorable Rodney E. Hood to their res…
“Net income increased to $22.15 million.”
“Net income was $23.65 million.”
“Net income was $20.34 million.”
“Operating income was $29.43 million.”
“Operating income was $31.97 million.”
“Operating income was $26.65 million.”