Reading NFBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NFBK free→Reading NFBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NFBK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact NFBK's outlook. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash flow supports reported profits, while management's recent track record is neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence NFBK's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 NFBK trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 13.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.34 (+3.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$69.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Northfield's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NFBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The press release attached as an exhibit to this Current Report pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NFBK Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Northfield Bancorp is focusing on completing its merger with Columbia Financial, expected to be accretive to earnings.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The merger with Columbia Financial is expected to be 50% accretive to Columbia's 2027 EPS. No financial results from the merger are yet visible in Northfield's financials, indicating the merger is still in progress.
“Columbia anticipates that the merger with Northfield would be 50% accretive to Columbia's 2027 earnings per share.”
Northfield Bancorp is committed to maintaining its dividend at $0.13 per share.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.13 from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no changes in the dividend amount over the period.
Northfield Bancorp aims to improve its operating income following a significant loss in 2025-Q4.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved significantly from a loss of $22.4M in 2025-Q4 to a positive $16.87M in 2026-Q1. This indicates a strong recovery and effective cost management, delivering on the priority to improve operating income.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can indicate economic health. Rising claims may signal trouble for banks like Northfield.
Confirms:Unemployment claims have risen a lot compared to the past weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims decrease or stay stable compared to previous weeks.
Other Events. The press release also announced the declaration of a $0.13 per common share cash dividend payable on May 20, 2026 to stockholders of record as of May 6, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing a strategic transaction and earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The press release attached as an exhibit to this Current Report pursuant to this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of Equity Award Grants On February 6, 2026, Northfield Bancorp Inc. filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the "Original Form 8-K") indicating the granting to directors and employees a total of 172,272 restricted stock units. The actual amount of restricted stock units granted was 201,168. There are no other changes to the Original Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On January 31, 2026, Northfield Bancorp, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Northfield ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Columbia Financial, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Columbia Financial ”), Columbia Financial, Inc., a newly-formed Maryland corporation (the “ Holding Company ”), and Columbia Bank MHC, the parent mutual holding company of Columbia Financial (the “ MHC ”). The Merger Agreement was unanim…
“The press release announced the declaration of a $0.13 per common share cash dividend.”
“The press release also announced the declaration of a $0.13 per common share cash dividend.”
“Dividend per share was maintained at $0.13.”
“Operating income improved to $16.87M in 2026-Q1 from a loss of $22.4M in 2025-Q4.”
“Operating income was a loss of $22.4M.”