Reading NECB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NECB free→Reading NECB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NECB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NECB trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 NECB trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.79 (-4.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,875.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects how much Northeast Community Bancorp can earn.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a more hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates steady or signals a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NECB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On May 21, 2026, the stockholders of NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). The material terms of the Plan are summarized on pages 12 through 21 of the Company’s definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A filed with the Securities and Exchange Commis…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NECB Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Northeast Community Bancorp's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 29, 2026, NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is furnished herewith. The information contained in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On January 28, 2026, NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is furnished herewith. The information contained in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . (b) On January 20, 2026, Linda M. Swan notified NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and NorthEast Community Bank (the “Bank”) that she will be retiring as a director of the Company and the Bank effective as of January 20, 2026. Ms. Swan’s retirement was not the result of any disagreement with the Company or the Bank regarding the ope…
Other Events . On December 8, 2025, NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has authorized a third stock repurchase program to acquire up to 1,400,435 shares, or 10%, of the Company’s currently issued and outstanding common stock. On May 30, 2023, the Company announced its second stock repurchase program, which authorized the purchase of up to 1,509,218 shares of the Company’s common stock. The Company repurchased 1,091,1…