Reading MSBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If MSBI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 MSBI trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.78 (+20.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$270.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,159.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect Midland's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Claire A. Stack was appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company and its wholly owned banking subsidiary, Midland States Bank (the “Bank”), effective May 8, 2026 . Ms. Stack , age 38, joined the Company in November 2025 as the Company’s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSBI Midland States Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand the stock repurchase program from $25 million to $45 million and extend it to December 31, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced an increase in its stock repurchase program from $25 million to $45 million, extending the expiration date to December 31, 2026. This is a new initiative, and its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters.
“The board approved an increase in the stock repurchase program from $25 million to $45 million.”
Continue to pay a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.32 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. This consistent dividend policy reflects stable capital allocation, with no change in the dividend amount over the period.
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of its common stock.”
Focus on achieving positive net income after previous losses.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company achieved a net income of $18.46 million in 2026-Q1, a significant improvement from the net loss of $2.89 million in 2025-Q4. This indicates a positive trajectory in financial performance.
“We generated earnings of $0.74 per share and a return on average assets of 1.16%.”
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can show how the economy is doing. This impacts Midland's lending.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims go down, showing a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims go up, showing a weaker job market.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s board of directors has approved an amendment to the Company’s current stock repurchase program that increases the amount of common stock authorized for repurchase from $25 million to $45 million and extends the expiration date of the program to December 31, 2026 . To date, the Company has repurchased 923,837 shares of its common stock at an average price of $21.46 fo…
Other Events. Dividend Announcement On May 5, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on May 22, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026 . The Board also declared a cash dividend of $0.4844 per depository share on its 7.750% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A. Th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 5, 2026, Eric Lemke was terminated from his position as Chief Financial Officer of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Midland States Bank (the “Bank”), and no longer serves as the Company’s principal financial officer or principal accounting officer. On March 5, 2026, the Company appointed Claire S…
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of its common stock.”