Reading MSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSA free→Reading MSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSA free→NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach to capital allocation. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, MSA is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $162.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $162 MSA trades at 20× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $186 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $197–$235. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.14 → $2.14 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,284.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health and care for shareholders. This can make investors feel more confident.
Confirms:MSA announces an increase in the dividend per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:MSA announces a cut or stop in dividend payments.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement Acquisition of Autronica Buyer Norway AS and its Affiliated Companies On May 5, 2026, MSA Safety Incorporated (“ MSA ”) and Aegir Safety Holdings AS (“ Safety Holdings ”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of MSA, entered into an agreement to acquire Autronica Buyer Norway AS and its affiliated companies (referred to herein collectively as “ Autronica ”). Pursuant to a Sale and Purchase Agreement (the “ SPA ”), by and among MSA, Safety Holdings, Au…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$197.00 – $235.00 (median $235.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Office Services & Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSA MSA Safety | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WSC WillScot Holdings Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | elevated |
HNI HNI Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PBI Pitney Bowes, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TILE Interface, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
MSA announced the acquisition of Autronica Buyer Norway AS to enhance its market position.
MSA continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
MSA aims to increase operating income through operational efficiencies and growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Finishing the Autronica deal will grow MSA's market. It will also improve safety solutions.
Confirms:The deal will close in Q3 2026. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Disproves:The deal may be delayed. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management thinks the company will grow.
Confirms:MSA repurchases more than $100 million of shares by the end of 2026.
Disproves:MSA fails to execute any share repurchases by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Organic growth trends show how well MSA handles market challenges.
Confirms one read:Q2 organic sales growth is over 5% from last year.
Confirms the other:Q2 organic sales growth is below 0% from last year.
Why it matters: The Autronica acquisition could boost MSA's growth and market position. Investors will look for clarity on the deal's progress.
Confirms:A press release confirms the deal is done or important steps are reached.
Disproves:There are delays or problems with the deal.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health and care for shareholders. Changes can affect investors.
Confirms one read:There is a confirmation of dividend payments in the next earnings report.
Confirms the other:There is news of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if MSA can maintain growth amid macro challenges.
Confirms one read:Q2 adjusted EPS growth is over 15% from last year.
Confirms the other:Q2 adjusted EPS growth is below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income is important for MSA's profits. Investors will watch for signs of growth.
Confirms:Operating income shows an increase compared to last year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Other Events On February 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of MSA Safety Incorporated (the “Company”) approved a new stock repurchase program to replace the Company’s existing program. The Board did not set a termination date for the new program. The new program authorizes up to $500 million in repurchases of Company common stock. The timing, manner, price and amount of any repurchases under the program will be determined by the Company in its discretion. Acquisitions pursuant to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.