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Acacia Research Corp. (ACTG)
NASDAQIndustrialsBusiness Equipment & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$4.68-0.43%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Business Equipment & Supplies
- Market cap
- $452.04M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-08-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$10.97consensus
Range $8.30 – $11.60
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$25.82consensus
Range $25.82 – $25.82
vs price: -82% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $4.70 ACTG trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.6x
peer 1.9x · own history —
Premium
0.9x peer
Growth the price needs
-57%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$10.90
range $8.17 – $11.55
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
18th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -4.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral1 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $-0.09 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$320.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,065.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth speeding up again.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Acacia as part of the industrial sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows the sector is recovering.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows there are still challenges.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACTG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Report and the exhibit attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation by reference language in such filings, exc…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.