Reading HNI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNI free→Reading HNI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNI free→NYSEIndustrialsFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
As of June 16, 2026, HNI's recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated. Earnings quality is robust, while management's track record is neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as the company trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact HNI's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 HNI trades at 10× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $79 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 61.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.15 → $1.04 (-9.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,392.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
Risk rose. The risk label changed to elevated. Earnings quality remains robust. Management is neutral. Recent financial performance is weak. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Valuation is cheap, but there is a value-trap risk.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if the segment can recover from geopolitical issues. It will also show if it can make more money.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth in Workplace Furnishings is better than -5% from last year.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth in Workplace Furnishings is worse than -5% from last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HNI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement Refinancing On June 10, 2026, HNI Corporation, an Iowa corporation (“HNI”) entered into Amendment No. 3 to Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 3”) by and among HNI, the other Credit Parties party thereto, the 2026 Refinancing Term Lenders (as defined therein), and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”), which amends that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of Septem…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Office Services & Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HNI HNI Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSA MSA Safety | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WSC WillScot Holdings Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | elevated |
PBI Pitney Bowes, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TILE Interface, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Emphasize revenue growth through organic sales and strategic acquisitions.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: EPS performance shows the company's financial health and how much investors trust it.
Confirms:Q2 non-GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $0.34.
Disproves:Q2 non-GAAP EPS falls below $0.34.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track. This impacts investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs. This can lead to higher profits.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 10% from last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.34 in Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.34 in Q2.
Why it matters: Increasing operating income is key for long-term profits and shows good cost control.
Confirms:Operating income margin went up from -2.7% in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income margin drops further from -2.7% in Q1.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is more efficient. It also shows better cost control.
Confirms:Operating income improves to less negative than -$30M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income worsens to more negative than -$40M in Q2.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, HNI could benefit. This affects overall performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 6% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 18, 2026, the Board approved the Corporation’s entry into a Change in Control Employment Agreement, to be dated and effective as of June 1, 2026, with Vincent P. (VP) Berger II, who serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Corporation (the “CIC Agreement”). The CIC Agreement will replace the existing Change in…
and in Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is being “furnished” with the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under such section. Further, such information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless specifically identifi…
and in Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is being “furnished” with the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under such section. Further, such information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless specifically identifi…