Reading MPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPB free→Reading MPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether MPB cuts guidance on the next call, as that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 MPB trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.88 → $0.84 (-4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$282.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,549.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect investor confidence in Mid Penn Bancorp.
Confirms:Revenue growth is below the average of about 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is at or above the average of about 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MPB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 21, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (the "Corporation") issued a press release discussing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Corporation’s press release dated April 21, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPB Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has extended its treasury stock repurchase program and increased the number of shares available for repurchase.
The company continues to declare quarterly cash dividends, maintaining a consistent payout to shareholders.
The company completed the acquisition of Cumberland Advisors, enhancing its asset management capabilities.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer spending trends, affecting bank performance. Strong sales may boost confidence in the sector.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect loan demand and bank margins. A rate hike may pressure bank earnings.
Confirms:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
OTHER EVENTS Extension of Treasury Stock Repurchase Program On April 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (the “Corporation”) approved the renewal of the Corporation’s treasury stock repurchase program through April 30, 2027, as well as an increase in the number of shares available for future repurchases under the program. As modified, the repurchase program authorizes the Corporation to repurchase up to an additional $50 million of Corporation common stock, from time to…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . Effective as of the Effective Time, and in connection with the Merger, Thomas R. Brugger, a former director of 1st Colonial, was appointed to serve as a Class A director of Mid Penn and Mid Penn Bank. Other than the Merger Agreement, there are no arrangements between Mr. Brugger and any other person to which he was selected as a director. There ar…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in the Introductory Note of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On January 21, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (the "Corporation") issued a press release discussing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Corporation’s press release dated January 21, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.