Reading MNSB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MNSB free→Reading MNSB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MNSB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed, indicating some uncertainty in profit sustainability. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, although it has shown a capital-friendly approach. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while compared with sector peers, MNSB is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting MNSB and other Financials names. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 MNSB trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.53 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$276.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,098.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision affects interest rates. This impacts how much banks earn from loans.
Confirms one read:If the FOMC raises or keeps interest rates, it shows trust in the economy.
Confirms the other:If the FOMC lowers interest rates, it shows worries about the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MNSB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 26, 2026, MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) the holding company for MainStreet Bank, announced that since the beginning of the second quarter, the Company has repurchased 207,000 shares of outstanding common stock at an average price of $24.09 per share under its current stock repurchase program. The shares were repurchased in accordance with the limitations set forth in Rule 10b-18 of the Securities and Exchange Commission and other applicable legal requirement…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MNSB MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the quarterly cash dividend on the Series A Preferred Stock.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Series A Preferred Stock, maintaining its commitment to return capital to shareholders. This reflects a stable dividend policy.
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Series A Preferred Stock.”
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Series A Preferred Stock.”
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in revenue growth for the sector. This could impact MainStreet's performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Other Events. On May 22, 2026, the Board of Directors of MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the outstanding shares of the Company’s 7.50% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, par value $1.00 per share (the “Series A Preferred Stock”). On September 15 and 25, 2020, the Company issued an aggregate of 1,150,000 depositary shares (the “Depositary Shares”), each representing a 1/40th ownership interest in a share of the Se…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s first quarter 2026 unaudited financial results. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is hereby incorporated by reference, and will be posted on the Company's website.
Other Events. On April 24, 2026, the Board of Directors of MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. announced a new stock repurchase program (the "New Stock Repurchase Program") to repurchase up to $10.0 million in shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock. This New Stock Repurchase Program will replace and supersede the Company's existing stock repurchase program which was originally announced on October 21, 2025. The timing, number and purchase price of stock repurchased under the New Stock Repur…
Other Events. On March 3, 2026, MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) the holding company for MainStreet Bank, announced that since the beginning of the year, the Company has repurchased 174,280 shares of outstanding common stock at an average price of $22.45 per share under its current stock repurchase program. The shares were repurchased in accordance with the limitations set forth in Rule 10b-18 of the Securities and Exchange Commission and other applicable legal requirements. As of…