Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-29
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MBIN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Regional Banks is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 19%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMBIN’s core case is steady financial performance at a below-sector peer valuation, despite fragile cash backing. Revenue growth slowed from 20% in Q1 FY2026 to 2% in Q2; Q3 GAAP earnings beat consensus. It trades at 1.0× P/B versus a 1.2× peer median, with the market pricing more growth than our forecast. The latest quarter beat, though the model puts next-quarter miss probability at 27%. Fragile cash backing could weaken confidence in reported profits. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MBIN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 3 analysts currently covering MBIN (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare MBIN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBIN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Regional Banks — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MBIN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.