Reading LCNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LCNB free→Reading LCNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LCNB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact LCNB's prospects. Earnings quality is neutral, while management's recent track record has been steady, indicating some stability. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from LCNB and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 LCNB trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.43 (+1.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$334.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,405.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak earnings may show ongoing problems in LCNB's operations and market.
Confirms:Earnings report on July 28 shows lower than expected revenue or profit.
Disproves:The earnings report is better than expected. Revenue and profit are strong.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LCNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, LCNB Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release (Exhibit 99.1) and unaudited financial highlights (Exhibit 99.2) are attached and are furnished under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LCNB LCNB Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
LCNB aims for disciplined growth with measured loan growth, strong wealth management, and stable asset quality.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $25.43M in 2026-Q1, slightly up from $25.19M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress. The focus on disciplined growth is recurring, but substantive delivery is narrow so far.
“We remain focused on disciplined growth, including measured loan growth...”
“We remain focused on disciplined growth, including measured loan growth...”
LCNB aims to maintain high profitability throughout 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income was $4.44M in 2026-Q1, down from $5.66M in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline in profitability. The statement of high profitability is new, with limited progress shown in the financials.
LCNB continues to maintain a stable dividend per share of $0.22.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share of $0.22 has been consistently maintained across the period, indicating stability in capital allocation. The trajectory is delivering as stated.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change lending rates and LCNB's profits. Changes may show market shifts.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, leading to higher lending rates for LCNB.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates, which could squeeze LCNB's margins.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect LCNB's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median level of about 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median level.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, LCNB Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the earnings release (Exhibit 99.1) and unaudited financial highlights (Exhibit 99.2) are attached and are furnished under this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2025, LCNB Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the earnings release (Exhibit 99.1) and unaudited financial highlights (Exhibit 99.2) are attached and are furnished under this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On October 15, 2025, LCNB Corp. (“LCNB”) announced that Robert A. Bedinghaus resigned from the Boards of Directors of LCNB and LCNB National Bank and from the Trust Committee. Mr. Bedinghaus resigned for personal and family-related reasons and not because of any disagreement with LCNB on any matter related to LCNB or LCNB National Bank’s operat…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) On October 8, 2025, LCNB Corp. (“LCNB”) announced leadership promotions as part of its comprehensive succession plan. On October 8, 2025, LCNB announced that Robert Haines II, age 53, the Bank’s current Chief Financial Officer, will assume the role of President effective at the close of business on October 8, 2025. Eric Meilstrup will continue…
“We believe 2026 will be another good year of high profitability.”
“Dividend per share of $0.22.”
“Dividend per share of $0.22.”
“Dividend per share of $0.22.”
“Dividend per share of $0.22.”