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Track KLRA free→KAILERA THERAPEUTICS INC (KLRA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-07
$22.24-4.55%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
The bottom line
KLRA's growth depends on positive clinical data and leadership changes to justify its price. Recent news shows strong clinical data supporting product development and a new corporate officer. KLRA trades at a premium with a 65% chance of missing earnings next quarter. If KLRA misses again, it could face continued pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-07
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $2.70B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2026-03-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-25
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
The thesis
(what has to stay true — and what would break it)The thesis
The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.
TurnaroundWatch
The bull case
Kailera is advancing gene therapies for rare diseases with strong clinical progress. It raised $600 million to fund its pipeline. Positive Phase 3 obesity trial data supports future product launches. New leadership may improve corporate strategy.
The bear case
The company is still unprofitable with negative EPS expected through 2027. Recent earnings missed expectations. No revenue is currently forecasted, raising doubts about near-term commercial success.
What's priced in
The market is correcting with no clear consensus on revenue or earnings growth. Our view sees potential in clinical progress but acknowledges ongoing losses and execution risks.
What has to stay true
- advance clinical trial milestones for obesity drug Ribupatide
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.24. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
—
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
—
Earnings yield (TTM)
Long-term · 1–3 yrHow strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-07.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
1 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyneutral+0.4%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-07
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$326.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,865.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-07
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Positive clinical data supports product development for a product launch, and the appointment of Kathleen Tregoning as Chief Corporate Affairs Officer may enhance corporate strategy. There are no identified threats at this time.
as of 2026-07-07
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-299d agoInvesting News Network
New leadership role may enhance corporate strategy.
ReinforcesConfirmed
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting KLRA and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for KLRA and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping KLRA and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If KLRA misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits KLRA and other Healthcare names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-261mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.