Reading ISTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which could raise concerns among investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ISTR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 ISTR trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.71 (-7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 9.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,192.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Investar is performing compared to peers. This can impact stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats expectations set by analysts.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share (EPS) misses expectations set by analysts.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ISTR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 20, 2026, the shareholders of Investar Holding Corporation (the “Company”) approved the Second Amended and Restated Investar Holding Corporation 2017 Long-Term Incentive Compensation Plan (the “Plan”) at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). The purpose of the Plan is to motivate high levels of performa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ISTR Investar Holding Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Investar aims to integrate Wichita Falls Bancshares to expand its market presence.
Investar continues to provide consistent shareholder returns through stable dividends.
Investar focuses on improving profitability through increased net income.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates and market conditions. This impacts Investar's lending.
Confirms one read:When the FOMC raises interest rates, it shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:When the FOMC cuts interest rates, it shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects overall investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median of about 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above its median.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, Investar Holding Corporation (the “Company”), the holding company of Investar Bank, National Association (the “Bank”), issued a press release reporting first quarter 2026 results and posted on its website its first quarter 2026 earnings release and investor presentation. The materials contain forward-looking statements regarding the Company and include a cautionary note identifying important factors that could cause actual resul…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 22, 2026, Investar Holding Corporation (the “Company”), the holding company of Investar Bank, National Association (the “Bank”), issued a press release reporting fourth quarter 2025 results and posted on its website its fourth quarter 2025 earnings release and investor presentation. The materials contain forward-looking statements regarding the Company and include a cautionary note identifying important factors that could cause actual r…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets Effective as of January 1, 2026, Investar Holding Corporation (“Investar”), the holding company for Investar Bank, National Association (“Investar Bank”), completed its previously announced acquisition of Wichita Falls Bancshares, Inc. (“WFB”), the holding company for First National Bank. The acquisition was completed in accordance with the previously announced Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated July 1, 2025, by and between Investar and WFB…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective January 1, 2026, David Flack and James Dunkerley were appointed to fill two newly created vacancies on the board of directors of Investar, with the initial term of each to expire upon the election of directors at Investar’s 2026 annual meeting. Each of Messrs. Flack and Dunkerley was also appointed as a director of Investar Bank. Each of M…