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Investar Holding Corp. (ISTR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$29.56+0.27%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which could raise concerns among investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ISTR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $415.88M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2014-05-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$31.75consensus
Range $30.15 – $33.45
vs price: -7% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$51.76consensus
Range $28.71 – $63.87
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $30 ISTR trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.0x
peer 12.2x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
-9%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$32.27
range $30.41 – $44.65
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
97th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
19th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -7.4% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.71 (-7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 9.1% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,192.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for July 20 earnings results
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Investar is performing compared to peers. This can impact stock sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats expectations set by analysts.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share (EPS) misses expectations set by analysts.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ISTR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting ISTR and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ISTR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-20), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ISTR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-20), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on ISTR and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping ISTR and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2226d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 20, 2026, the shareholders of Investar Holding Corporation (the “Company”) approved the Second Amended and Restated Investar Holding Corporation 2017 Long-Term Incentive Compensation Plan (the “Plan”) at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). The purpose of the Plan is to motivate high levels of performa…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.