Reading HTB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTB free→Reading HTB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HTB trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 HTB trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.87 (+5.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$46.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $967.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects how much banks earn and lend.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This helps banks make more money.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates, which could compress bank margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HTB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 18, 2026, Robert E. James, Jr. retired as a director of HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (the "Company"), the holding company for HomeTrust Bank (the "Bank"), effective at the completion of the Company's annual meeting of stockholders held that day (the "Annual Meeting"). Mr. James also retired as a director of the Bank.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HTB HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the quarterly dividend, indicating confidence in the company's financial strength.
Management has provided EPS guidance, indicating expectations for continued financial performance.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a potential slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: More claims may show economic problems. This can hurt lending and growth.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than in previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims decrease or stay stable compared to previous weeks.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026 , HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc., (the "Company") the holding company for HomeTrust Bank, issued a press release reporting financial results for the first quarter of the year ending December 31, 2026 and the declaration and approval of its quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release, including unaudited financial information released as a part thereof, is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorp…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 9, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee of the Board of Directors of HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) approved, for the year ending December 31, 2026, targeted incentive award opportunities and performance measures and weightings under the Company’s Senior Leadership Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). For the year endin…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 22, 2026, HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc., (the "Company") the holding company for HomeTrust Bank, issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter of the year ended December 31, 2025 and the declaration and approval of its quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release, including unaudited financial information released as a part thereof, is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incor…
Other Events On December 16, 2025, HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc., (the "Company") the holding company for HomeTrust Bank, issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference announcing the completion of its 5% stock repurchase program, which began in March 2022. A total of 806,000 shares were repurchased at an average price of $31.84 per share. In addition, the Company's Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to an additional 870,000 shar…