Reading GRPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRPN free→Reading GRPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRPN free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 GRPN trades at 1× p/s, in line with its 1× p/s peer median. Our $14 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $-0.06 (-241.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$382.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$713.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this cash flow target shows better cash handling and efficiency.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $60M for 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $60M for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRPN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Groupon, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Aditya Rajkumar as Chief Operating Officer, effective August 3, 2026 (the "Effective Date"). Mr. Rajkumar, 42, served as Vice President, Digital & Delivery and Head of Skipcart at 7-Eleven, Inc. since 2023, where he led Skipcart, 7-Eleven's last-mile delivery marketplac…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Interactive Media & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRPN Groupon, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RDDT REDDIT, INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Groupon aims to increase its full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $75M and $80M.
Groupon aims to achieve a free cash flow of at least $60M for the full year 2026.
Groupon has set a revenue guidance range of $126M to $128M for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Clear revenue guidance helps investors see the company's growth path.
Confirms one read:Management gives Q2 2026 revenue guidance that is more than expected.
Confirms the other:Management gives Q2 2026 revenue guidance that is less than expected.
Why it matters: The new COO's plans could improve operations and change the company.
Confirms one read:Positive changes or news from the new COO after August 3, 2026.
Confirms the other:Ongoing operational problems or bad news after the COO change.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, Jiri Ponrt, Chief Operating Officer of the Company, notified the Company of his decision to resign from his employment with the Company, effective July 10, 2026. Mr. Ponrt’s resignation is unrelated to any disagreement with the Company. As Mr. Ponrt is resigning voluntarily from the Company, he will receive no benefits under hi…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of Groupon, Inc. (the “Company”), a Delaware Company, approved a restructuring plan relating to the Company’s previously announced strategy to rebuild the Company as an AI-native company and better deliver on our mission, serving both customers and merchants. The initial phase of these restructuring actions is expected to include an overall reduction of up to 400 positions globally, including employees…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Groupon, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026 , Groupon, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.