Reading GRMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRMN free→Reading GRMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRMN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $235.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $238 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $167 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $238–$325. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 42% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.30 → $2.29 (-0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$276.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,797.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Garmin's revenue growth shows strong demand for its products and a good market position.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 9% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 9% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance for 2026
Sales growth in fitness and outdoor devices supports revenue guidance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 5, 2026, Garmin issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit No. 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing that its shareholders have approved a cash dividend in the amount of $4.20 per outstanding share out of Garmin’s reserve from capital contribution payable in four equal installments on dates to be determined by the Board of Directors in its discretion. The Board has determined that the first installment of $1.05 will be payable on…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$238.00 – $325.00 (median $250.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Electronics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRMN Garmin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SONO Sonos, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VUZI Vuzix Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | high |
TBCH Turtle Beach Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GPRO GoPro Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | — | high |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Garmin aims to achieve approximately $7.9 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.
Garmin is targeting a pro forma EPS of $9.35 for the fiscal year 2026.
Garmin aims to maintain a gross margin of 58.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows Garmin has healthy cash flow and rewards its shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend of $1.05 is paid on June 26, 2026.
Disproves:The dividend payment is late or smaller than expected.
Why it matters: Getting approval for the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial health.
Confirms:Shareholders agree to the cash dividend of $4.20 per share.
Disproves:Shareholders do not agree to the proposed cash dividend.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows Garmin manages costs well and has good pricing power.
Confirms:Q2 gross margin reported at or above 58.5%.
Disproves:Q2 gross margin reported below 58.5%.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong financial health and growth potential. It can boost stock performance.
Confirms:Garmin reports pro forma EPS of $9.35 or higher in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Garmin reports pro forma EPS below $9.35 in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Growth in the fitness segment shows people want Garmin's wearables.
Confirms:Fitness segment revenue growth above 30% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Fitness segment revenue growth falls below 30% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows Garmin makes good money and runs its operations well.
Confirms:Pro forma EPS reported at or above $9.35 for 2026.
Disproves:Pro forma EPS reported below $9.35 for 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows the company can meet growth expectations. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Garmin confirms revenue guidance for 2026 remains unchanged in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Garmin lowers revenue guidance for 2026 during the next earnings call.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance for 2026
Expansion in marine offerings aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve pro forma EPS of $9.35 for 2026
Beating earnings expectations indicates strong EPS potential.
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in