NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Garmin grows revenue about 11% a year to nearly $7.9 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay strong near 58.5%. Earnings per share rise above $9.35 in 2026. The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share.
Revenue growth slows below 7% and margins shrink below 55%. Earnings per share fall short of $8.15. Rising costs or weaker demand hurt profits and cash flow.
The market prices in about 11% revenue growth and expects earnings growth near 15% over three years. Our fair value is about 30% below the current price, reflecting more cautious assumptions than the Street.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or payout below $4.00 per share
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.15 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 56% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on fitness and innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and strong segment growth, but the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers.
The market has priced in a premium valuation, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the current price may not be fully justified given the company's execution quality.
Management has prioritized raising revenue and EPS guidance, with recent strong financial performance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the company's history of earnings surprises trending down.
Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance, the impact of inflation on consumer discretionary spending, and the performance of sector leaders like AMZN and TSLA, which could influence GRMN's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports growth objectives for 2026. The company raised its full year revenue and EPS guidance, reinforcing its positive outlook. New product launches enhance innovation and growth potential across segments.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 24% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26
Garmin aims to achieve approximately $7.9 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GRMN's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
