NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend payout of $4.20 per share | The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or payout below $4.00 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS reaches at least $9.35 per share | The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $8.15 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.35 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.8 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea07a1-de87-4412-becf-c2488c72d26f. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin maintains near 58.5% | A primary condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= 58.5%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 56% in FY26 | Gross margin: 62.41% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 58.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202662.4117 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea07a1-de87-4412-becf-c2488c72d26f. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin stays above 25.5% | A supporting condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= 25.5%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 24% in FY26 | Operating margin: 30.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 25.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202630.439169 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea07a1-de87-4412-becf-c2488c72d26f. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches approximately $7.9 billion | A primary condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.9 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $2.022B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.9 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262,022,092,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea07a1-de87-4412-becf-c2488c72d26f. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 28, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and fitness. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong, but there are risks that could impact future growth.
The market appears to have priced in a durable premium, indicating that expectations are relatively high compared to peers. However, the valuation is considered expensive, suggesting that any missteps could lead to significant downward adjustments.
Management has shown a stable approach, with a focus on achieving revenue and earnings guidance. Recent financial performance has been strong, particularly in the fitness segment, but there is a moderate risk of missing future expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and continue delivering strong results. Additionally, broader sector performance, particularly from major players like AMZN and TSLA, will be crucial in determining GRMN's trajectory.
Overall, GRMN has a solid foundation, but it must navigate sector challenges and execution risks to sustain its momentum. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.