Reading FUNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FUNC free→Reading FUNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FUNC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, although it has made capital-friendly decisions. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 FUNC trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into First United's performance and outlook. This can impact stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows higher revenue and profit margins than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower revenue and profit margins than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FUNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Officer. On May 27, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of First United Corporation (the “Corporation”) appointed Jason B. Rush, age 55, to serve as the Chairman of the Board. Mr. Rush was elected to the Board by the Corporation’s shareholders at the 2026 annual meeting of shareholders held on May 7, 2026. Mr. Rush also se…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FUNC First United Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend of $0.26 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.22 in 2025-Q2 to $0.26 in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently maintained or increased its dividend, delivering on its commitment to provide stable returns to shareholders.
“The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable on May 1, 2026.”
“The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.26 per share.”
“The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.22 per share.”
Focus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $24.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $25.7 million in 2026-Q1, showing a positive growth trajectory. The company is delivering on its commitment to sustain revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can signal consumer spending trends. This affects First United's loan demand and overall growth.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.2% month over month.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in First United Corp.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Compensatory Arrangements . Long-Term Incentive Plan On March 6, 2026, in connection with the annual grant of restricted stock units (“RSUs”) that include time-vesting RSUs and performance-vesting RSUs pursuant to the Long-Term Incentive Plan (the “LTIP”), which is a sub-plan of the First United Corporation 2018 Equity Compensation Plan, the Compensa…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Compensatory Arrangements . On March 11, 2026, First United Corporation (the “Company”) and Jason B. Rush, the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company and of its bank subsidiary, First United Bank & Trust, entered into a Second Amended and Restated Agreement Under the First United Corporation Change in Control Severance Plan (the “Agreem…
Other Events. On March 4, 2026, First United Corporation (the “Corporation”) announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $.26 per share that will be payable on May 1, 2026, to holders of record of the Corporation’s common stock as of the close of business on April 17, 2026. A copy of the Corporation’s announcement is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
“Revenue increased to $25.7 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Revenue was $25.8 million.”
“Revenue was $24.9 million.”
“Revenue was $24.1 million.”